Newhaven Software is an international company specializing on the development
of sports betting-oriented high quality software products. Being a member of Software Industry Professionals,
our team comprises mathematicians, programmers, and sport analysts from USA, United Kingdom,
Austria, Sweden, and Finland. The common feature of our programs - introduction of
the latest advances in the probability and statistical analysis.
· Odds Wizard v2.55 "Live Magic"
Odds Wizard is a major software product
of Newhaven Software. It generates any kind of performance-based odds for the upcoming games in
any league sports, such as soccer, hockey, baseball, American football,
rugby, basketball, and tennis. Program maintains Internet-updateable databases with the past
games for over 100 soccer leagues of Europe, Asia and America, UEFA Champions League, Europa League, World Cup,
European Championship, NHL, NFL, and NBA. Keeps track of all teams ratings in dynamics. Has built-in
sophisticated bet optimizer as a powerful tool. This software performs advanced
tournament analysis, and features convenient intuitive user interface.
The history of Odds Wizard goes back to 1998 when enchanting spectacle of World Cup in France
had inspired development of prediction algorithms. First simple algorithm was implemented within the
Excel worksheet as Visual Basic application. Since then, a lot of research efforts have been made
towards enchancement of prediction strength. Initially, soccer was the only sport supported by
Odds Wizard. Nowadays, other types of sports such as ice hockey, basketball, american football,
baseball, and tennis are supported as well.
Since the first release in 2000, Odds Wizard has acquired over 25,000 active users worldwide,
and this number is constantly growing.
· Uniqueness of Odds Wizard
Algorithms of Odds Wizard are unique, and are based on the most advanced statistical
methods, including adaptive regularization of the pseudo-normal solution, integral form of
Pascal distribution, etc. There is no other software that can compete successfully
with Odds Wizard in prediction strength as so far.
· No senseless verdicts
predicts future events in terms of probabilities of win, draw, loss, unders, overs, correct scores,
handicaps, etc. It does not make senseless verdicts on who will actually win. Situation resembles quantum
mechanics: you can't predict anything surely, but you can compute probability of whatever you want.
Then, you compare fair odds (in decimal notation, equal to 1/probability) with the line odds offered by a bookmaker,
and decide whether to place stake or not.
· Capabilities of Odds Wizard
Odds Wizard's powerful prediction engine is able to compute fixed odds
(1 X 2), double-chance odds (1X 12 2X), Asian handicap odds, fixed handicap
odds, all totals, and all correct scores with corresponding odds, half/full time odds
(as many as over 100 various odds per event are computed).
Three separate sets of odds for the match periods (full time, first time and second time)
are supported, thus tripling the total number of computed odds.
It can handle unlimited number of arbitrary leagues with up to 1024 teams, and
unlimited number of games per league. All supported leagues are easily updated via
the Internet connection.
Odds Wizard has been fully integrated
with the bet optimizer Stake Wizard 4, decision-making software generating
an optimal betting strategy. Using sophisticated probability analysis,
it does directly instruct bettor as of what bet structure is preferable,
as well as of the specific betting fund distribution. Unlike simple programs
based on Kelly criterion, Stake Wizard 4 allows to use a realistic range
of bankroll growth, and to specify confidence probability of reaching
the target fund.
Odds Wizard has built-in powerful tools, such as Odds converter,
Performance analysis, and Tournament analysis.
· Live results and odds on your PC
In addition to the listed above features, Odds Wizard
is able to display live results and all corresponding odds in a real time
thus creating new dimension to the widest odds array.
· Support of tennis sport
Support of tennis sport is one of the new features of Odds Wizard.
Underlying state-of-the-art algorithms are worth of the best previous developments and
research efforts in soccer, hockey, and other sports. These algorithms are able to track live
results and compute full set of in-play odds until the end of match.
The only condition for efficient use of the new version with its huge tennis leagues is
a powerful processor inside PC. It must be also noted that during more than 15 years period
of Odds Wizard's life, many dedicated users requested tennis to be added to the list
of supported sports. And finally, their dream comes true.
· What is Odds Wizard designed for?
Odds Wizard is designed to help professional bettors to have greater
wins, though the bookmakers may also use it to maximize their profits.
As a matter of fact, Odds Wizard has been a virtual independent bookmaker
providing any kind of odds on the basis of advanced statistical analysis
and forecast. Unlike real bookie, it doesn't make costly mistakes. Furthermore,
it reveals such mistakes and enables bettor to rely not only on the good
luck, but also on the probabilistic laws. Normally, the latter are on
the side of a bookmaker as long as one releases correct line odds (lines).
In such a case 10-20% of gross amount of stakes make up bookie's profit
in the long run. Should the bookie's line odds exceed fair odds generated
by Odds Wizard, bettor acquires reliable preconditions to win and bookie
Maximum possible value of an average factor of fund growth Z is achieved by the optimal
distribution of a bankroll amongst 2N-1 possible simultaneous stakes,
and is determined by the following expression:
where ln Zave - mathematical expectation of ln Z;
pi - probability of i-th event, equal to 1/Fi, Fi - fair odds;
qi - sportsbook's 'probability' of i-th event, equal to 1/Li, Li -
payout coefficients (aka line odds); N - number of chosen independent events.
Possible stakes comprise N system bets (combinations) of type (m, N), where m = 1..N.
Each system bet contains CmN m-fold accumulator bets. In particular,
possible stakes include N single ordinary bets, and one N-fold accumulator bet.
In general case, optimal system bets are not equipartitioned.
The proof is trivial for a single event with only one possible stake. In the latter simple case,
optimal stake is equal to Kelly's optimum (p - q)/(1 - q).
The proof for N > 1 is rather complicated even for N = 2. However using Stake Wizard's
multivariate optimization engine, one can calculate optimal stakes and verify the theorem numerically
for the greater N 's in few seconds.
The above formula means that Zave can be incredibly high, provided that one has
found sufficient number of appropriate events (Fi < Li).
But the price is tremendous number of stakes to be placed by the bettor.
For example, for 26 events having Fi = 1.5 and Li = 1.7, one should place
as many as 226-1 = 67108863 various stakes to achieve 40.2% of an average fund growth in a
single round! Practical constraints however, such as minimum stake limitation or the reasonable
number of simultaneous stakes, of course reduce the effective value of Zave.
These constraints are taken into account by Stake Wizard, and can be set as the program's options.
The new theorem empowers Stake Wizard 4 with an ultimate performance that could be never
· Odds Wizard may be used in two ways:
1. Set profit margin to 0%, generate fair odds, compare them to the bookie's
lines, find occasions when the line odds appear to be greater than fair
odds, and place reliable stakes according to the scientific approach provided
by the powerful tool Stake Wizard 4.
2. Set profit margin to 10-20%, generate line odds, and open new sportsbook
without bookie himself! Serious bookmakers may use Odds Wizard as an advisor,
e.g. to correct an average market odds in a direction shown by the program.
· Special statement for all Odds Wizard competitors
In order to
facilitate development of better and better sports prediction algorithms,
facilitate fair competition among real sports prediction software products of a similar nature,
exclude advertisement and presentation shell,
provide potential users with an ability to compare comprehensive performance figures
we invite all existing and future producers of sports prediction programs to a permanent
contest which will measure the performance of softwares in terms of stipulated criteria. We
have already been using certain criteria on our
statistics/performance pages, and suggest them as our contribution to a commonly developed pool.