Depreciation period

[betmonty]

Hi Alex,

I have searched through the forum, and have seen you mentioned several times that the depreciation period is by default 900 days, but that different depreciation periods are to be used for different leagues.

My question: how am I supposed to find the correct depreciation period for the different leagues?

If I look at the progam, it does not seem to be built to back test anything. I can also not imagine that you don't have valuable data on this yourself already, but you made statements that seem to indicate every user is on his (or her) own.

Seeing this is an essential part, as it determines how odds are calculated, I am really wondering how to figure this out? Am I missing something?

[Alex]

This issue is not simple, and we perform constant research on DP optimum by the number of variables as can be seen below on a screenshot for one of football leagues. Default value 900 for the national leagues is a result of that research. At the user's level the ratio (Success rate)/Entropy can be used as optimization parameter. These values are computed in Tools > Performance analysis.

[betmonty]

Hi Alex,

I have been playing around with the settings a little bit, and something stuck out to me.

With the performance analysis tool, I have determined the optimal depreciation periods for these leagues to be:

dep
arg 220
aus 300
aut 280
aut1 370

While the default setting across the leagues is 900, the 4 above leagues have as default setting between 900 and 1200 days depreciation period.

Yet, when I test, much lower numbers seem to perform much better in the performance analysis.

Is there something I am unaware of?
Seems a big difference between optimal setting as calculated by performance analysis tool on one side, and default setting on the other.
Or am I doing the right thing by checking perfomance for each league manually?

Thank you in advance.