| Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » Stake Wizard |
| 1. BlueKipper - 08 January, 2007 - 14:55:22 |
| Hi all, I'd like to post a general question on stake wizard, and how best to use it. I think its excellent & at the moment I have 4 separate stake files - Home Win, Draw, Away Win & 1X/2X. I restrict myself to 6 leagues - English Premiership, English Championship, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A & Spanish La Liga. I take the fixtures for each weekend & look to bet on the top three picks for each stake file - this works out at a maximum of 12 bets per week, although obviously it is usually much less as even on Betfair I struggle to find that many value bets. I've considered creating 4 separate stake files for each league & restricting myself to just the top pick. The problem with this though is whose to say that the second best selection in France is not better value than the best selection in Germany. Perhaps I should be looking for a minimum value in one of the columns (eg R95) Does anybody have a different method of operating they'd like to share? Thanks |
| 2. AmirD - 23 January, 2007 - 09:41:00 |
| Hi Bluekipper, I check all available leagues if there is game worth betting on. I think that selecting games were the Z ave is >= 4.0 and where the chart trend of the team you want to bet on is up, is valid. They are rare though but are the best. I have been fortunate to find a bet that doubled my fund once, line odds 14.00, great fun and surprising. Betting on favourites isn’t the only way, although I definitely bet on them if they are worth it.. Waiting for these great opportunities is better than having a need or urge to bet every week. The last weeks I have been doing some testing of Stake Wizard to see how much better it is than common opinion. I haven’t checked the charts at all but simulated betting on games where ROI (return on investment) is greater than a predetermined level, and using Kelly stake size (Kelly is easier for me to calculate in Excel). After 60 bets the profit is 19%, but I would need more than 200 to use it with confidence. There is more work with this kind of betting but the fluctuation in the fund might be smaller. |