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Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » 2007 Algorithm

1. TheBluesBrother - 11 November, 2007 - 04:25:50

There has to be a major bug with the 2007 algorithm.
For the past week I have been looking at the score predictions for the English leagues and the algorithm predicts a scoreline of 1-1 for the majority of the teams (98%+).
If you run the 2006 algorithm you get what I see as a true reflection of the true scoreline i.e the 2006 algorithm says Leeds United to beat Leyton Orient 2-0 whereas the 2007 algorithm says 1-1...the difference between the two scorelines is vast!
When running the 2006 algorithm the bookmakers odds were very close to what the bookmakers actually lay, the 2007 algorithm is not even close.
I saw the post of the guy having problems with the 2007 algorithm in the NFL...I have to agree with him, the 2007 algorithm needs looking at.

(Edited by: 11 November, 2007 - 04:26:57)

2. riccja - 11 November, 2007 - 12:24:25
I noticed something in ncaa fb. When you load the program at first with the 07 algorithm the projected odds seem in line with what they should be and although different from 06 nothing dramatic. But then when you hit the update button...everything flattens out.

In mlb this dosnt happen. Also it dosnt happen in the nfl but is just flattened out to begin with.

hope this helps

rick

3. anato - 11 November, 2007 - 14:39:11
I agree with you blues brothers. I think 2007 algorithm must be checked, because it has lack of true predictions scores. This is big handicap for 2007 algortihm when we compare 2006 to 2007 algorithm. Because odds wizard produces odds when we check 2007 algorithm, it shows score nearly all of the matches 1-1. This should not be true prediction. Secondly I wonder chart menu>ratings> teams vs teams. I think odds wizard shows rating of a team both home and away rating total. I suggest to authors of the odds wizard, Chart menu should show team vs team rating divided into home and away rating. Such as when we choose A team and B team, team vs team graphs must shows (if A team will play at home) A team rating at home and B team away rating. Most bookies use home and away performances of the team to compute odds. This information very usefull to compute odds. For example A team will play at home and has high rating at home, because this team is strong at home but when it will play away this team has low rating because it is weaker than home. I think odds wizard rating system lack of this critical information. Thanks for your attention and participitation.

(Edited by: 11 November, 2007 - 14:40:16)

4. Alex - 11 November, 2007 - 15:05:13
Quote:
2006 algorithm says Leeds United to beat Leyton Orient 2-0 whereas the 2007 algorithm says 1-1

The algorithm just shows the odds of the most likely score to happen. Let's see the other close correct score odds in ascending order:

2007: (1:1) 7.24; (2:1) 7.79; (1:0) 8.88; (2:0) 9.57
2006: (2:0) 7.76; (1:0) 8.14; (2:1) 9.43; (1:1) 9.89

While (1:1) is the most likely score in 2007, (2:1) has also better chances to happen than that in 2006.

Ok, let's look at the bookie's odds 1X2 (interwetten.com) on this game
(October 13, Leeds United - Leyton Orient FC):

1X2: 1.5 - 3.7 - 5.0

After stripping the profit margin 12% using Odds convertor tool, the odds become:

1X2: 1.71 - 4.21 - 5.68

Fair odds computed with algorithms of 2006 and 2007 are:

2006: 1.51 - 4.89 - 7.59
2007: 1.80 - 3.92 - 5.25

Which algorithm is closer to the bookie? It's obvious that 2007 is!

Yet, algorithm of 2007 is much better in calculating correct over/unders. Now you can see performance data on the overs/unders in the Performance analysis tool.

Quote:
I noticed something in ncaa fb

The setting "Options -> Auto calculation on file opening" was unchecked. That's the reason why things are changed when you click an arrow button.

5. riccja - 12 November, 2007 - 07:11:02
alex,

I agree the totals are much better in 07 for all sports that I follow. But for some reason in football both pro and college the algorithm is way off. It seems to work fine in mlb. Nba looks fine. Also I know have ncaa baskets loaded and it looks fine there.

But for some reason it flattens out the numbers way too much in football sides.

Just an observation.

Rick

(Added)
I take that back on total in football..double checked and all totals are within 4 pts of each other in ncaa fb...that all games!

6. TheBluesBrother - 13 November, 2007 - 06:38:04
I was looking at a game Northwich Victoria v Exeter City in the England4 league today:

Looking at the betting 2007 Algorithm (Fair Odds) 4.76 - 3.84 - 1.89 with a score prediction of 1-1, this looks to be a away win for Exeter City as the probility % shows 21% - 26% - 52.9% which is quite high.
The 2006 Algorithm gives the score prediction to be 0-1 which you have to agree with especially if you take the 52.9% probility (2007) to be an accurate estimation.

7. Alex - 13 November, 2007 - 07:50:01
Quote:
Looking at the betting 2007 Algorithm (Fair Odds) 4.76 - 3.84 - 1.89 with a score prediction of 1-1

The score 1:1 is not a prediction! It is just a score with the minimum odds. Let's look at the other correct score odds for this game:

2007: (1:1) 7.16 (1:2) 7.89 (0:1) 9.35 (0:2) 10.3
2006: (0:1) 7.57 (1:1) 8.18 (0:2) 8.81 (1:2) 9.52

As you see, chances of (1:1)+(1:2) in 2007 is greater than (0:1)+(1:1) in 2006.

You might also notice that algorithm of 2007 is much more accurate in overs/unders. In particular, 2007 gives greater totals for this league that results in different distribution of odds for all correct scores.

8. Bruno - 16 November, 2007 - 11:04:30
2007 algorithm is better than 2006.

Perhaps, 1-2 leagues are questionables like NFL (tight handicap for all matchs )

exemple :
NFL - 21.10
Miami - New England :
fair HC +2.5 for Miami
Books HC : +17 for Miami

I'm pretty sure that fair handicap will never be highter than 7...

but apart from that, 2007 is a really good vintage

(Edited by: 16 November, 2007 - 11:28:41)

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