| Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » Greece B - Agios Dimitrios vs Ionikos |
| 1. Oompa Lumpa - 21 January, 2008 - 00:45:59 |
| The fair odds for the away team is 5.1, yet the line odds on Betfair are 1.8 - 1.82. That is a huge difference. As a new subscriber I was wondering if others could check to see if they have similar fair odds on this match, and if so could you tell me how often there would be such a difference in the line and fair odds. TIA |
| 2. Alex - 21 January, 2008 - 05:46:48 |
| One of generic tips on using Odds Wizard is to check charts of ratings: Charts -> Team vs Team -> Agios Dimitrios vs Ionikos. The chart clearly shows that Ionikos is going up, while Agios is going down. This means that Agios is not recommended to be the bettor's choice despite of favorable fair odds (1.97). Ionikos could be the choice for the line odds > 5.1. |
| 3. Oompa Lumpa - 21 January, 2008 - 08:04:49 |
| Alex, I understand that in an ideal world you would like your team's rating to be increasing whilst the opposition's team is decreasing, however surely if OW's probabilities are accurate then you couldn't refuse a bet on Agios Dimitrios, ie the fair odds according to OW is 1.96 yet the line odds are > 5. That is just a huge discrepency, and regardless of the fact that the chart is going down for Agios Dimitrios surely an edge that big couldn't be overlooked if the predictions are anywhere near accurate, would you not agree? After all it's not as if the line odds are 2.5 for Agios Dimitrios, where I would agree that the edge is fairly small. |
| 4. tmaeland - 22 January, 2008 - 04:57:11 |
| I think the result of this game tells everything!! Odds Wizard was right again. |
| 5. Oompa Lumpa - 22 January, 2008 - 05:47:19 | |
| Quote: tmaeland, Odds Wizard was wrong in this case. OW had Ionikos' fair price at 5.1. Ionkios started at 1.58 on Betfair and they won 1-0, so OW was hugely out from the market price, and was wrong in this instance. |
| 6. Alex - 22 January, 2008 - 17:22:19 |
| The red card for Agios Dimitrios did the matter in the above case. Note that Odds Wizard's performance in no way can be measured by the single game result. You need a lot of games (at least all games during depreciation period) to make certain conclusions as of performance or league predictability. Performance analysis tool (Tools > Performance analysis) does it for you. |
| 7. Oompa Lumpa - 23 January, 2008 - 04:05:46 |
| I didn't know about the red card, I layed Ionikos and they had drifted to over 3.4 on Betfair in running, so I had my hopes up for a while. I agree with you that one game doesn't tell anything. The reason I raised the thread is that in all the odds I looked at over the weekend this was the only game where OW's prediction was very far away from the actual line odds. |