| Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » Newcomer in the league |
| 1. daiquiri - 12 July, 2008 - 15:22:01 |
| How do you set the initial rating for a newcomer team in a league ? I see that you base your numbers on results of such team vs any other team present in the league and whom this newcomer team played in other leagues/competitions. In many cases the number of such games can be small enough or too distant in the past to be statistically trustworthy (in relation to others). So, would only take into account the above results ? Wouldn't you assign some weight also to an average performance of all newcomers in the league or the performance of this team in the previous season in the lower league (in case it moved up in category), etc. ? |
| 2. Alex - 12 July, 2008 - 17:35:42 |
| Rating of newcomer team is set by default to zero, i.e. to an average level. Further progress of its rating depends on the further games. All games during depreciation period (900 days by default) affect ratings of all teams. So we must take all games between all involved teams from several previous seasons of lower/higher league to assure that ratings are calculated correctly. |
| 3. daiquiri - 12 July, 2008 - 18:10:35 | |
| OK thanks and I'd rather re-formulate my original question, because of this: Quote:
Any particular reason that newcomers are set to zero ? Is it an average backed up by the performance of all newcomers in all leagues ? |
| 4. Alex - 13 July, 2008 - 12:22:15 | |
Quote:
Since the program has no other information (no past games available), it has nothing to do but to set an average level. That is why we take relevant games from the other seasons. |