| Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » Definition of 'In-Total' |
| 1. Kervon - 14 May, 2006 - 08:56:33 |
| Hi Guys, Being a user of OW for such a long time, I'm alittle embarassed to post this question. But I seriously need to know the answer to this question as it has been bogging my brains for the longest time. So.... ASs the title suggests... Does anyone know what 'In-Total' stand for? Does it mean the average number of goals the team have scores? or does it mean the avg number of goals the team have conceded? Please advice... Thanks! |
| 2. Alex - 16 May, 2006 - 16:14:13 |
| It does mean the average number of goals that the team contributes to the total goals. That's why it is called 'in-total'. This includes both scored and conceded goals. So the average total of a given match is equal to the sum of 'in-total's of both teams: Total=Intotal1+Intotal2. Note that 'in-total' does not mean average goals scored by a given team. Average goals difference is equal to: Diff=HomeAdv+Rating1-Rating2. On the other hand, Total=G1+G2, and Diff=G1-G2, where G1, G2 stand for average goals scored by home and away teams, respectively. Consequently, G1=(Total+Diff)/2=(Intotal1+Intotal2+HomeAdv+Rating1-Rating2)/2 G2=(Total-Diff)/2=(Intotal1+Intotal2-HomeAdv-Rating1+Rating2)/2. Obviously, the higher values of 'in-total' have the teams with the stronger attack and/or weaker defence. Coming soon version 1.90 will have another definition of 'in-total'. |
| 3. Kervon - 17 May, 2006 - 10:09:01 |
| Thanks for your valuable feedback, Alex. Hmm.. To what I can see then, the ratings for the current In-Total would only be useful for the forecasting of the TOTALS of a given match. Not so much on indicating which team is exactly stronger, unless we see a high In-Total rating and start digging into the teams past few matches to see if they were scoring too much or conceding too many. Anyway, your feedback and advice is very much appreciated. And to be honest, I can't wait for 1.90 release. Keep up the great work! |
| 4. Kervon - 29 May, 2006 - 08:21:08 |
| Alex, now that ver 1.90 has been released. I see a totally new concept to the way 'in-total' is being represented. WHICH in other words, have voided the above, earlier mentioned use of 'in-totals'. Could you elaborate on the use of 'In-totals' now, and what exactly it signifies? Did not find any clue to it in the help files. Thanks! |
| 5. AmirD - 03 June, 2006 - 04:19:59 |
| Hi Alex, it would be practical if one could set for instance 2.5 in the options menu as a default value in the Total column, instead of editing each cell. |
| 6. Alex - 03 June, 2006 - 18:34:56 |
| The value of Total=2.5 does exist in Totals view (0..2 vs 3+). Editing the default value for the Main (general) view will be implemented in the next version(s). Thanks for the idea! Exact definition of in-total in v1.90 involves much more math stuff, that cannot be disclosed at the moment according to the agreement with mathematicians. In principle, it does mean the same thing, except that 'wild' scores between strongest and weakest teams are automatically 'softened' inside the algorithm. This results in less average total compared with that of 2002, while totals between strongest and weakest teams have become more realistic. |
| 7. Kervon - 04 June, 2006 - 02:57:35 |
| Well, that's a sad thing. Because I often rely on the 'In-Totals' for my analysis. But with the current 'In-Totals', I have no idea where to start from. The 'In-Totals' now doesn't seem to be like the original where 'In-Totals' = Goals For/Against of a team. Now it's less than <1 and I don't seem to be able to apply it anymore. Anyway, I do hope that there can be more note on how In-Total can be used. The mathematical part of the 'In-Totals', I believe we don't need to know. But PLEASE at least tell us how In-Total can be 'used'. Just like how you told us in the previous few posts of this topic. |
| 8. AmirD - 06 June, 2006 - 02:50:49 |
| Alex, if I would bet over/under, would "z ave%" above 4 be sufficient? Is chart reading useful these cases, in that case what should I look for? |
| 9. Alex - 06 June, 2006 - 15:44:23 |
| Z ave >= 4% is a universal heuristic principle that can be used regardless of the odds nature. However there is no definite and mathematically strict proof of this inequality. As for O/U, charts of in-totals can be used in the same way: don't bet on 'over' if both in-totals go down, and don't bet on 'under' if both in-totals go up. For individual scored goals, 'in-total' charts are not applicable. |
| 10. AmirD - 07 June, 2006 - 03:32:47 |
| Thank you. |