your are THE MAN.
| Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » Odds Wizard v1.90 has been released |
| 1. Alex - 26 May, 2006 - 20:11:28 |
| Improvements in version 1.90: 1. New computation algorithm. Full support of international competitions. WorldCup2006 is ready for use. 2. Extended odds for totals. 3. Half/full time odds. 4. Better 3D balls room. |
| 2. Bruno - 27 May, 2006 - 04:24:33 |
| Thank you very much Alex , your are THE MAN. |
| 3. Highman - 28 May, 2006 - 11:03:25 |
| Hi Alex, would you please tell what changes in the new computation algorithm? |
| 4. traderpaul - 28 May, 2006 - 16:23:32 |
| Thanks Alex I downloaded v1.90 today and it works fine. I noticed that you can choose to use either the new (2006) algorithm or the old (2002) one. I appreciate this as I have been tracking some systems using Odds Wizard and I wasn't sure about the new algorithm. Looking at the differences in performance analysis module I'll probably go with the new algorithm. I have noticed that performance figs are better pretty well across the board but particularly so in the secondary leagues. Is there any reason for this? Also very happy that the software will be able to price up the WC2006 matches. Thanks again Paul |
| 5. Argus - 29 May, 2006 - 06:33:47 |
| I wonder why there are so much difference exists between 2002 and 2006 algorithms. For example, today Norway1 game between Manglerud and Aalesund show fair prices 5.96-4.95-1.59 with 2002 and 18.1-8.69-1.21 with 2006. I have seen something like this in other leagues. So please tell me which one is a really fair odds? |
| 6. Kervon - 29 May, 2006 - 08:08:18 |
| Thanks alot for once again a great update. Well, to what I see... If it took Alex 4 years to get a new algorithm... I believe it's definitely here for a reason worthy enough. Once again.. Thanks! |
| 7. traderpaul - 29 May, 2006 - 16:24:57 |
| Alex The difference in prices between 2002 and 2006 algorithm is a bit of a concern. The 2002 algorithm has done a decent job of calculating fair prices for me. In the first WC match Germany - Costa Rica, Germany is priced at 1.42 in 2006 alg. and 1.88 with 2002 alg. Thats a huge difference. I have run performance analysis on most of the main leagues and in every case the success rate exceeds 2002 alg by at least 2-3 % points. Should I expect the 2006 algorithm to give me better than fair odds? Paul |
| 8. Alex - 30 May, 2006 - 17:20:34 | |
| New computation algorithm better handles leagues with a great difference in teams' strength, especially international leagues. Quote:
Yes. In most cases, computed distribution of 1X2 probabilities is closer to the actually observed distribution. The extent of their match is a measure of odds' fairness. That's why computation algorithm of 2006 is better, in particular for Norway1. As for World Cup, and other international competitions, old algorithm (2002) is absolutely not applicable. |
| 9. Martin - 31 May, 2006 - 06:41:04 |
Thanks Alex for this new version and all the work done!  Is the new algorithm suitable for the MLB? The performance analyser shows a small increase from 2002 but the Under/Over fair odds are quite strange. OW now gives me an average of 7.5 points were the books offer are more in the 9.5 Yesterday, 11/15 Unders were values, some with a Z.ave larger than 20 taken individually!!! Same results with total goals by team were the books offer "under/over" around 4.5 and OW calculates fair odds around 3.5 I didn't have these sort of differences with 2002. Is it possible that 2006 could be better calculating 1X2 while staying with 2002 for the U/O? |
| 10. Alex - 02 June, 2006 - 16:06:57 |
| Of course, MLB is quite different. So it may be better to stay with 2002 for U/O in baseball. Since MLB is not supported yet, there is need to study this issue carefully. |
| 11. Peke - 03 June, 2006 - 06:31:33 |
| I think this 2006 looks much better with soccer and ice hockey at least. Now there is more realistic draw probability with hockey games. |
| 12. Martin - 04 June, 2006 - 05:29:31 |
| Well, just to let you know. Here are my results (simulations) of all these "under" values found with the 1.9 release. There are mainly under values obtained from the "F6" screen... From: Mai 30th, 2006 To: June 3rd, 2006 # of days: 5 MLB 1.9 # of values played: 118 Average of @1.91 Z.ave average of 9.49 (Win-Refund-Loss): (50-7-61) Results for 1u bets: -15.59 Yield: -13% Quite interesting actually. It would be tempting to lay all those "values" on Betfair... (Edited by: 04 June, 2006 - 05:30:17) |