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Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » Correct Score Odds

1. Theuth - 15 December, 2005 - 16:03:18

Seeing as there is no-one else willing to kick this forum off, I will.

Hi, great program by the way. I wanted to ask about the way that the odds for the correct score are calculated. Are they calculated using poisson distribution or are they a product of the 1X2 odds that OW computes?

I only ask because last season for the English premier league I made my own spreadsheet in Excel that calculated the odds for the correct score using poisson distribution. My conditions were the previous seasons scores for each team. It worked quite well but I got bored with having to enter the data each week (ok, I'm lazy I admit it!!).

If you don't want to divulge your programs secrets on a public forum, thats fine. I understand.

Anyway, thanks for a great program.

Regards, Theuth

ps. by the way, a link to the forum from within the program (maybe in the
Help index) would bring more people here. Cheers

2. admin - 19 December, 2005 - 09:26:15
Thanks for your advice. A link to the forum in Odds Wizard menu has been added to the currently downloadable version 1.80. Since it is too minor enhancement for a version change, an announcement will be broadcast over the update server.

Poisson distribution is better fitted for hockey, american football, etc. Soccer requires a bit different distribution to be adequate.

3. ColdFish - 21 January, 2006 - 10:20:42
When I first started using OddsWizard about three years ago, the black box approach to the forecast bothered me. Not knowing how the forecast was produced prevented me from using the program for some months. At that time I was using my own forecasting models within Excel sheets, and I had experienced some pretty bad sports forecasting software in circulation at the time, many of which made silly claims to accuracy.

As the season progressed, however, it became evident that for the major European leagues the forecasts were better than my own. So I moved over completley to using the program for betting 1X2, on European football. Whilst the program is essentially black box technology from the users point of view, it works.

4. ColdFish - 08 February, 2006 - 15:17:37
The odds for correct score betting always make me nervous. It's also difficult to know how accurate the forecast by the program is.

5. Kervon - 18 March, 2006 - 21:04:28
Well, we could probably ame this forum into one that strictly speaks of corret score.

Back to the pt, I don't know for sure how accurate the Correct Scores are, as I've always steered myself away from the herculean task of jotting down on my Excel what the correct scores were for each and every match to come.

One thing though, has anyone noticed that the highest probablity for almost any match (85%) usually a 1:1. This is no big deal perhaps for any average punter who spots that in a bookmaker's tabs, 1:1's usually the lowest in odds. BUT, if someone was to 'value' bet on each and every 1:1... I've actually made an average odds for 1:1 which stands at bout odds of 5 or 6... THAT punter would have burnt quite a BIG hole in his/her pocket.

I've personally used the correct scores (preferably the 1:0 and 0:1s) to determine the confidence level for a winning match determined by OW. Do note that this applies only to certain leagues. If you were to see a WHOLE 10 match of 1:0 in a week of French Ligue 3.... The likely hood of you losing would be big time, as they'll produce like 70% draws...

6. ColdFish - 20 March, 2006 - 18:00:29
Correct score forecasting is just too dicey for my taste. Those long odds are there for a good reason, they are hard to win.

7. Theuth - 24 March, 2006 - 07:19:26
That's true Coldfish, however, the odds for correct score are set out on a grid based upon the odds for 1X2. For example, at Ladbrokes if the odds for the 1X2 are 1/1, 11/5 & 11/5 the odds for a 2-2 draw are 14-1 no matter which 2 teams are playing. If you can find a team that's had a lot of 2-2 scorelines in the past, that 14-1 represents value. This goes for any score not just the 2-2.

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