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1. Bruno - 29 January, 2006 - 07:21:35
Hello,

First of all, excuse me for my english, i'm french.
I would like to speak about my "value betting experience" with odds wizards.

I bet since June 2005 with Odds Wizards and only in Asian Handicap and Over/Under.

I made around 700 bets. Actually my Yield is @ 5.65% for around 9 000 euros investment. I think it's a good percentage but.... since approximately 300 bets (wich is much), My graphic go slighlty but surely in down or stagnation.

1) I try to understand why my values bets (based on the same models since the start : z.ave = 1.040 or +) go down ??

Historic : My first 200 values bets (corresponding the first 2 month ot the soccer seasons - the start of the season), i was hot. I made 24% yields for around 2000 euros investment.
After these 200 bets, I stagnate for approximately 100 bets...ok, i thought it was a normal period because my yields was too high (24%). I thought that my yield must be 9-10%.
After these 100 bets, (bet 300 to bet 600), i begin to go down....i passed from 24% to 5.65%.....

2) Why value betting don't work so fine now ???
i have an answer, but i'm not sure if it's the right answer.
- My answer is here : bookies have no repair at the start of the seasons. It's more easy to find lot of value and nice values With OW and these values are generally correct.
So, it is more and more difficult to pass correct value bets when we are on the season advanced.
Because bookies have sharpened their stats and their odds. I found less value bets than the start of the season and my value bets are in the down than the start of the season... i think it's a sign that bookie became better in odds and stats when the season is advanced.

3) I would like to know if i'm in the right ?

4) I would like to know if Depreciation period (900 days) is correct ? Why not 700 days or 600 days ?

Perhaps i will have much value ! because at this period (and IMO until the end of the season) i will have no much value bet.

For example : The first 2 month (corresponding at the start of the season), i made 200 bets. The last 2 month (December-January) i made 20 bets....

I have also noticed that 80% of value bets are on the minor league like Roumania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgary, Scotland, Holland, Argentina, Qualifing world cup (really nice value) etc....

I rarely made a bet (value bet-hasian handicap) for England, Spain, France or Italy...

5) Why these differences between country ?

Lastly, NFL value bet was for me catastrophic (handicap and O/U). I don't understand.

I would like to say BIG THANK YOU to Alex.
Thank you very much for your help !!
All the best for 2006 !!
Bruno



(Edited by: 29 January, 2006 - 07:24:00)

2. ColdFish - 03 February, 2006 - 09:58:23
My own experience is that value bets become much harder to find as the season progresses, at least with the favourite home teams, in the major European leagues. Britain, France, Germany, and Spain. However, poor value for the person who bets, is good value for the bookie, so do what I do, and lay odds.

(Added)
I may add that I also have found the return on my investment to be around 6%, it would be interesting to know whether that is coincidence or not.

3. Bruno - 03 February, 2006 - 13:09:13
Ok, Thx Coldfish for your answer

How i can ise stake Wizard 3 with laying odds please ?

4. AmirD - 03 February, 2006 - 17:57:17
I use the formula: (average profit*percent winners)-average bet size, divide by average bet size to get profit margin.
Coldfish, I believe you have a very large sample size. I have only 70 bets so far and my profit margin is 51%, but my approach generates high short term volatility.
I don't bet without Stake Wizard and it's often a tough decision to bet a large part of one's equity on a single game. Profitable betting is not easy!

5. ColdFish - 05 February, 2006 - 01:20:53
When laying I use a fixed sum currently 200ˆ and cover all three possible outcomes.

Stakes Wizard's main utility is deciding which outcome in any game to lay on. It allows you to smoothly select the games with the best margins from the bettors point of view.

I would like to emphasise that doubles, triples or whatever, are a mugs game. Bookmakers love them, because they stack the odds against the punter.

6. BILLKOR - 05 February, 2006 - 19:09:55
I REALY BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD SHARE THE JOB.WE ARE SO MANY PEOPLE HERE THAT IF EVERY ONE TAKES 3 LEAGUES AND FINDS THE VALUE BETS IN THESE 3 OUR LIFE WILL BE MUCH EASIER.I M SURE THAT EVERY DAY I M MISSING A COUPLE OF VALUE BETS.I USED TO BE A CROUPIER THE LAST 5 YEARS IN A BIG CASINO IN GREECE.AND BY WATCHING AND TALKING TO PRO BLACK JACK PLAYERS I LEARNED THAT THE KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS IS TEAMWORK.JUST IMAGINE IF WE COULD HAVE 10 VALUE BETS EVERY DAY INSTEAD OF 4 OR 5

7. ColdFish - 08 February, 2006 - 15:04:07
Sharing knowledge is a way to learn, but remember we are in competion with each other, those value bets disappear as fast as they are taken.


AmirD
The hard part of gambling is not getting excited and risking too much of your capital. I took a bet on Chelsea last week for 2000ˆ at 2.02 and won, everything seemed favourable to make it worth the risk. What I must do now is NOT try to be clever and do it again. Now I will go back to my max 200ˆ a bet pattern of playing; usually by laying. The objective is a realistic percentage return over a period of time. Big wins tend to lead to bigger losses if you start chasing them.

8. AmirD - 09 February, 2006 - 08:01:06
Bet when there is value; buy line odds far above fair odds or sell odds below fair odds.
I regularly see incredible discrepancy, not many though but they come around.
If fair is 3.00 and line odds is 7.00 why should one not bet, or if you choose, to lay the other side?
I always use Stake Wizard to calculate stake, I'm not very clever on my own







(Edited by: 03 November, 2006 - 14:51:26)

9. ColdFish - 09 February, 2006 - 08:29:15
You’re missing nothing. OddsWizard is unemotional, the market is not, provided OddsWizard produces reasonably accurate fair odds, and you deal with those, then in the long run you will win a margin profit.

Value lies in the discrepancy between fair odds and market odds, the wider the better. Such discrepancies tend to occur most commonly in the leagues with the least market, competition will tend to squeeze margins when many people are competing for price. My most difficult market for finding a good bet is in the UK leagues. Though these tend to have the most interesting in-play odds on Betfair, it is interesting to see wild swings in odds during the time no goal is scored, its all just emotion – take advantage of it if you can.

10. ColdFish - 09 February, 2006 - 15:24:26
BETTING - SETTING A NEGATIVE ROUND

When I am looking for value bets, I have found the easiest way is to set the profit margin to a negative margin, say 20%, the odds you then see listed within OddsWizard will be 20% above fair, and you know you have got a good bet.

11. BILLKOR - 12 February, 2006 - 06:11:37
What do you think about the idea of comparing odds from one bookmaker to another since their taking under consideration all the possible things that might affect the result of a game and not just the historical data.For example use a big bookmaker as standart and try to find odds better than him in other bookmakers to play.Or use betbrain that can tell us the actual percentage for each possible result by producing it from lots of bookmaker odds.For example betbrain can find the average odds for a game by calculating the odds from bookmakers.Is nt that closer to truth than oddswizard since the book makers know more things than us and they re including all the latest important news ikn their odds?

And finall can someone explain me how the programme counts its own success in perfomance analysis?what thinks of a win and what as a loss?

12. AmirD - 12 February, 2006 - 09:36:53
I don't think there is any real value in their odds. You might copy their odds and lay at betfair, but which one are you going to copy; lay where their is greatest profit. You'll get more bets if your odds are better than the bookmakers, use Odds Wizard for this if possible.
Back<>Lay (not equal to...)

(Edited by: 12 February, 2006 - 11:19:23)

13. Peke - 12 February, 2006 - 10:57:20
You can not just use oddscomparison for choosing bets as bookmakers lays odds according to their customers backing habits. For example if they always get much money for some favourite win they might lay that odd lower than real probability says. But oddscomparison is best used if you choose where to make your bet, that way you always find best odds from your own bookmaker selection.

14. ColdFish - 13 February, 2006 - 15:01:12
The bookmaker adjust their odds in order to ensure that they obtain a round on all outcomes, essentially the bets put on draws and aways pays the home wins, with a percentage left over for profit, hence bookmakers odds adapt to the market, although Betfair odds does it more rapidly.

The purpose off OddsWizard is to estimate statistically the true probibility, irrelevent of public feeling. At a guess I think it uses a modified form of the Elo system of rating. The Performance Comparison of the forecast is based on comparing probabilities estimated, against true outcomes. You will see an explanation of the formulae used in the help file.

15. BILLKOR - 14 February, 2006 - 14:47:24
Can someone please explain me why the Zave has to be over 1.040 .If i have a bet with Zave at 1.030 is nt still a value bet?And is it best to bet singles doubles or it doesnt matter as long as they re value?

16. ColdFish - 23 February, 2006 - 05:31:23
I am not familiar with the term Zave, can you expand on what you mean.

Mathematically single bets are the best because they offer less risk. Once you start doing multiples you begin stacking the odds against youself.

17. BILLKOR - 23 February, 2006 - 09:15:08
When the stake wizard gives the bet combinations there is a Z ave% parameter.Alex once told me trough an email that this value has to be more than 1.040.

18. Kervon - 18 March, 2006 - 00:09:59
Hmm... Interesting conversation.

But now one thing, ColdFish, I'm not sure if you're a user of Stake Wizard. But if you do, how do you go about knowing that you 200ˆ IS the correct amount to wager?

The edge we get from the value determines the amount we should wager from our bankroll. I guess this statement is definitely valid and true. So isn't a bet of 200ˆ on say a 5% value more dangerous and less worthy than a same 30% value bet, which you only back 200ˆ...? Get what I mean.

I've been using OW for a pretty long time.. But there's still a question I haven't got answered. Does anyone know say the situation is that we've got 3 value bets all kicking off at the same time.. amounts to wager are A=1ˆ,B=2ˆ,C=3ˆ respectively... from a bankroll of 10ˆ...
So..Do we bet 1ˆ and recalculate the B C with 9ˆ bankroll.... or do we just place 1,2,3ˆ which leaves our bank with 4ˆ...? Hmm... A penny for your thought?

19. AmirD - 27 March, 2006 - 01:28:09
Kervon
I don't think a worst case scenario is effective, although I can't argue against it.
I had about 10 value bets this weekend, what I did was divide the bet fund by 10 and kept it constant, this is probably not the best method either and is just gut feeling.
I would divide by 10 even if I had 30 value bets.
Increased bet frequency should help to reach the target faster, but how to do it effectively I don't know.
Wonder if Alex could help?

20. Kervon - 30 March, 2006 - 04:26:41
Amird,

Thanks for your reply on this matter. I won't judge what I mentioned as worst-case scenario..although it does look like one.

I was actually referring to the ACTUAL way Stake Wizard has intended for it's users to wager on.

Stake Wizard was made with the brilliant capabilities to propse how much you should wager on a match. BUT... If you had 10 REALLY GOOD value bets as you mentioned... and say you have 100 as base fund. Stakw Wizard suggests that each value bet requires an amount of like 30...

How do you go about wagering these 10 value bets?...

Which is why I was asking... Do we take one best %Z Ave value bet and wager 30 on it...and after which take 70 as base fund for the rest of the 9 value bets?... Is that how we are supposed to use Stake Wizard?

21. AmirD - 31 March, 2006 - 14:04:38
Kervon,

If I had for instance 5 good value bets I wouldn't change the bet fund at all; if your Fund is 100 and your stake size is 5x30=150, reduce it to what you can afford to lose; I think the solution is to recalculate the bet fund (if you know how) before you calculate bet size or just use common sense.

"To secure against defeat depends on oneself;
the opportunity for triumph depends on one's opponent"

22. Kervon - 31 March, 2006 - 21:43:16
Thanks AmirD.

Will take note of this valuable information.

23. Argus - 17 August, 2006 - 05:05:41
Quote:
When the stake wizard gives the bet combinations there is a Z ave% parameter.Alex once told me trough an email that this value has to be more than 1.040


Can anybody tell me more about that?
SW results table shows Zave as percent value. Should it be greater than 4% as displayed or 1,04%?
If you take a bet with fair odds 2,0 with default settings, Zave will be less that 4% even at the line odds as high as 2,85! I think that most bettors will take such odds as "outstanding value". Should we wait for bookies gift like 3,0+ odds on even-sided game? Should we avoid clear favourite (fair odds 1,6) even at the 2,1 line (Zave% = 3,75)?

24. Alex - 17 August, 2006 - 06:46:54
'Z ave' = 1.04 (growth multiplier) in the earlier versions (< 1.80) is the same as 'Z ave,%' = 4 (percent increment) now.

'Z ave,%' >= 4% is empirical rule, and the close value 3.75 may be useful if trends are favorable for the chosen team.

25. AmirD - 30 August, 2006 - 13:46:55
Hi Alex,

is there any sense in changing the depreciation period from the default value of 900? What value would you consider to be the lowest useful value for soccer?
Is the default value the same for other types of sports?

26. AmirD - 05 November, 2006 - 03:55:25
I found some ideas about money management and some ideas how to deal with multiple bets at this site, http://www.sportpunter.com/money_management.htm
I still use Stake Wizard although the Fund is subject to a Roller Coaster ride. I hope Stake Wizard can deal with multiple single bets in the future.


(Edited by: 05 November, 2006 - 03:55:49)

27. Kervon - 06 November, 2006 - 07:59:38
Nice site. But pretty much of a 'beat around the bush' and 'sales-talk'..
See that it talked about everything and finally went back to recommending it's own products..

Perhaps I'll draw the information out when I'm free and post it on these boards for everyone to share.

28. AmirD - 26 February, 2007 - 15:38:57
To bet on multiple games this might be a useful approach: determine the Fund, add all individual stake sizes in percent for instance: 15%, 33%, 12%, 21%, 12%, 12%, 23%, 14%, 10%, 9%, 11%, 12%=185%, divide the Fund with 185%. This is your recalculated Fund: if Fund is 1000 than 1000/185%=542
I haven't yet figured out how to determine the risk of losing for instance 10% or 20% of the Fund when using this method, that is I haven't put my mind to it yet, any volunteers

29. joe - 12 March, 2007 - 07:22:08
Hi ,
I Can't catch. Can you explain more. Pls
Thanks

30. AmirD - 13 March, 2007 - 01:53:29
15% of 542 =81.3
9% of 542 =48.78
10% of 542 =54.2
11% of 542 =59.62
12% of 542 =65.04
12% of 542 =65.04
12% of 542 =65.04
12% of 542 =65.04
14% of 542 =75.88
21% of 542 =113.82
23% of 542 =124.66
33% of 542 =178.86
sum =997.28


(Edited by: 13 March, 2007 - 03:18:41)

31. javen - 25 May, 2007 - 04:33:15
AmirD

could u share how u determine which match to place bet on?

32. AmirD - 26 May, 2007 - 04:10:52
http://newhavensoft.net/forum/topic.php?forum=1&topic=18





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