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Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » over/under

1. assi - 25 November, 2006 - 03:47:49

hi. can u tell me anything about the predictability of the over/under-estimations? is there anything like a performance analysis like it is for the 1x2-estimations?

reason is the big difference between the under-probality and the real odds of the bookies (the probality seems to be much bigger than the probability given by the bookies).

sorry for my english, regards,
assi

2. Alex - 26 November, 2006 - 04:15:22
Generic 1X2 distribution shown in the performance panel is tightly bonded to other related distributions: correct scores, AHO, and totals (over/under). The more accurate computed 1X2 is, the more accurate correct scores, AHO, and totals are.

Using computed 1X2 distribution in Performance analysis tool, you can indirectly determine when over/unders are higher or lower than the true values as follows.

1. Choose the Draws line in the performance table.
2. Compare Relative rate % for computed probabilities (column 5) with that of the number of games (column 3).
3. If the value in column 5 is greater than value in column 3, then true value of Total is higher than value displayed in Odds Wizard. This means that value of Over (>) must be less, and the value of Under (<) must be greater. And otherwise.

3. assi - 02 January, 2007 - 07:21:43
sorry, but i did not get that

how can the draws-line tell about the performance of over/under-performances?

e.g. for the NHL (the fair odds of the over-odds seem to be much too high ...):

draws: rel. rate 18,3% (column 5)
number of games (column 3): 519 (8%)

so, as u said, the value of over must be indeed less then stated, but why?what if oddswizard computed a lower rate of draws, but all games end like 5-4 or something? then the value of over must be higher ... or did i understand something completely wrong?!

thx for ur reply and ur nice "little" program assi

4. assi - 27 June, 2007 - 10:34:14
up ...

alex, i still did not get this ... could u explain once more, plz?

thx, assi

ps.: another question according under/over: what is the score prediction in the odds converter section worth? u cant predict the correct score just from the odds, can u?

pps.: and finally another idea: would it be possible to integrate a performance analysis for the "correct score" and the "over/under"-section?

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