Printer friendly version :: Asian handicap

IMHO Asian Handicap is an excellent way of betting when compared to Fixed Odds. I'll give a good and detailed example on why I've said this.

Say you've done your homework and is sure that Liverpool will win Newcastle, according to OW at the time of this message being posted.

The OW fair Fixed Odds are: 1.68 - 3.95 -6.54
OW Fair Asian Handicap odds: 0:3/4 = 1.90- 2.11

The 'estimated' Line odds should be: 1.57 - 3.67 - 6.08
Asian Handicap Line Odds: 0:3/4 = 1.76 - 1.97

Let's put value betting aside now and concentrate on the 'profits' IF Liverpool is your pick and it wins the match. For a standard $10 wager on Liverpool on Fixed and AH odds:

Liverpool wins by margin of 1 goal:
Fixed Odds: 10 x 1.57 = $15.70 (Profit: $5.70)
AH Odds: 10 x 1.76 x 0.5 = $13.80 (Profit: $3.80)

Liverpool wins by margin of >= 2 goals:
Fixed Odds: 10 x 1.57 = $15.70 (Profit: $5.70)
AH Odds: 10 x 1.76 = $17.60 (Profit: $7.60)

As you can see, if Liverpool wins by a 1 goal margin, the profit will be lesser (by $2.10 to be exact).. However, if Liverpool happens to score more than 1 goal..be it 2-0,3-1,5-0..etc... We have an increased potential profit of $1.90.. Which means we win MORE for a same outcome.

To round it up, AH is for YOU if you fall into the following categories:
1) Don't mind winning lesser for a good chance to increase your profits.
2) Confident that your winning pick will score MORE than the AH margin.
3) Absolutely hates the outcomes of draws

I'm an avid AH bettor. But like I said, AH is only there for 'betting' and NOT value betting. Reason being that the fluctuation of the AH Odds is too rapid. A drop of a couple of cents in Fixed Odds might be a good value, but a drop in AH Odds won't make much of a difference because AH odds blitz through the input and output of punters' wagers. Underlying the fact that the bookie rounds both sides to earn a edge profit. In the morning, you might find a AH plate at 0:1/2 , in the afternoon it can rise to 0:3/4, and back at night...it can drop back to 0:1/2. Thus it's difficult to just value bet for AH...

Another short example to support my above statement:

Line Fixed: 1.57 - 3.67 - 6.08
Line AH: 0:1/2 = 1.97 - 1.76

OW Fair Fixed: 1.68 - 4.20 -5.90
OW Fair AH: 0:3/4 = 1.90- 2.11

To a Fixed Odds value bettor, we might take the away team as a value bet. But if one is to follow the AH odds, he would see that the home team has the advantage..and would take the home as a value bet.

(Edited by: 19 March, 2006 - 00:23:34)