| Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds & Betting » Money management |
| 1. AmirD - 07 January, 2006 - 01:23:13 |
| Hi, I believe one should remove some money from the betting fund after winning, in order to enforce a winning mentality. Any opinions? (Edited by: 27 March, 2006 - 00:14:13) |
| 2. Highman - 12 January, 2006 - 05:32:46 |
| It is the balance between fund growth and money safe in your pocket. My practice is, when my betting fund growth to double, say from $1,000 to $2,000, I'll take 10% of fund, i.e. $200, and let the remain $1,800 to grow again. Withdraw $360 when the fund reach $3,600, and so on... |
| 3. ColdFish - 22 January, 2006 - 04:04:22 |
| I prefer to lay bets on the exchange, rather than make them. So in effect I have become a bookie. My working rule is to withdraw 25% of my gains at the end of each month. Leaving the balance remaining for capital growth. For laying bets, you need a lot of capital, and round up on bets is razor thin on the exchanges. But looking over my records I am making a gain of about 6% a week, which is more than I would get in a bank. And by spreading my bets over many games my risk of loss is minimal. In two years of laying bets I have not had a losing week, though my gain has been down to as low as 1.2%. My highest gain was 16.4%. Currently I work with a fund of 10,000€ hence, roughly I am making about 600€ a week. I have tried working with a larger fund, but the gains do not seem to be proportional, as to place the money becomes more difficult whilst keeping a workable rounding. |
| 4. AmirD - 28 January, 2006 - 00:16:04 |
| ColdFish You inspired me to look a little closer at laying bets. Laying would be favourable when I want to back a double chance, although I favour betting with bookmakers because of their immediate acceptance of bets. Theoretically good value bets can be found at Betfair, but the volume is often modest. I am curious: how do you calculate lay size, how do you maximize profit, do you use Stake Wizard, do you lay all sides and collect the "vigorish"? |
| 5. ColdFish - 31 January, 2006 - 18:23:50 |
| Normally I lay all sides; but seldom is a bet completly covered as there is almost always someone who is offering better odds on one of the possible outcomes. However, I have found that when laying bets in this manner my gains are consistently more than my losses. Though not by much, looking at this seasons returns I find an average of around 6%. But with a working capital of 10,000 Euros that's bringing me in a return of 600€ a week on average. Though I have had loosing weeks, but these have been more than made up for by winning weeks. Normally I cover around 100 games, so there is lots of tedious typing, and its necessary to check that the market has not moved away from you. There is no point in leaving an offer of a 100€ bet at 2.6 when the market has moved off to 3.6, or more. I cancel the bet and put it somewhere else, making a note of the game with a view to betting if enough value bets turn up. Again I am looking for a percentage return over a number of bets, rather than a massive win with a lucky one. |
| 6. ColdFish - 05 February, 2006 - 02:00:00 |
| My money management system is based simply on never using more than 10% of my stake on any single bet. And I would only make a bet of that size once or twice a year. I will have 2000€ backing Chelsea to win today. The situation looks right, but its an exception that proves the rule of my usual style of small stakes on many games, and make a reasonable margin. |
| 7. ColdFish - 09 February, 2006 - 02:56:52 |
| The Chelsea bet paid off at 2.02, but as I say, these types of bets are few and far between. |
| 8. AmirD - 10 February, 2006 - 07:55:01 |
| "Applying the Kelly Criterion is hard psychologically. Assuming you do have an investment edge and a long-term horizon, applying the Kelly system is still hard because of loss aversion. Most investors face institutional and psychological constraints in applying a Kelly-type system." Found at http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/Mauboussin_on_Strategy_020106.pdf Stake Wizard is different from Kelly criterion, but the psychological effect is similar. |
| 9. ColdFish - 10 February, 2006 - 17:12:53 |
| Controlling the desire to win big now is the first step. Making bets with a winning edge is the second. Luck I think is no substitute for planning and hardwork. I suspect that what makes a good gambler is the realisation that its not an easy road to riches. I notice that there are several vendors of software that 'guarantees' success at Betfair through automatic trading via the Betfair API interface. Do not believe it, if you have a software program that works and generates a risk free income you are not going to sell it. I have seen the same thing so many times with share trading and foreign exchange systems, its really hard to |