Note! The above fair odds have been generated by
Odds Wizard software.
Now it supports as many as 125 Internet-updatable leagues, and thousands of all other competitions.
· Explanation of fair odds
There are two kinds of odds: market odds (aka line odds or lines) offered by a bookmaker,
and fair odds presented on this page. Fair odds equalize opportunities of a bookmaker
to have a profit, and a bettor to win. In decimal notation, they are equal
to the inverse value of probability, and thus can be calculated using statistical methods.
Synonyms are true odds, refined odds. Market odds heavily depend on the betting volume,
and reflect subjective expectations of thousands of bettors worldwide. They are subject
to a constant drift. Bookmakers should set the market odds less than corresponding fair odds
as long as they want to have a profit in the long run. Lucky bettor finds those market odds
that are greater than fair odds. The latter may have place e.g. due to the bookie's mistake.
· Warning for serious bettors
Serious bettors must be aware that they are doomed to waste 10-20% of
their bankroll in the long run if bookmaker's market odds are less than
fair odds. The bookie's mistake can make the market odds greater than
fair odds. Therefore only pairs market > fair can be considered worth
for betting.
· Making betting decision
Making betting decision is a complex task.
What pair of market/fair odds is preferable for effective betting? What bet
for example is better: A=1.3/1.2 or B=1.7/1.5 ? The answer is none of
them but the complex bet A + B + AB! There is no simple expression to calculate
even 3-component bet, and we recommend to delegate such work to the
Stake Wizard 4 powerful tool, integrated in
Odds Wizard software.
· Performance of Odds Wizard (statistics)
Statistics pages reflect both performance of Odds Wizard (i.e. its prediction
strength) and predictability of a chosen league.
First table represents a summary of performance/predictability.
Exact meaning of its columns:
Actual number of games
Number of home wins (n1), draws (nX), away wins (n2),
and total games (N=n1+nX+n2) within analyzed period
Relative rate, %
Ratios 100*n1/N, 100*nX/N, 100*n2/N, and their sum = 100%
Sum of computed probs
Sum of computed probabilities for each game to be: home win (p1), draw (pX), away win (p2), and their sum pN = p1+pX+p2 = N
Relative rate, %
Ratios 100*p1/N, 100*pX/N, 100*p2/N, and their sum = 100%
Successful computed probs
Sum of successfully computed probabilities for home wins (s1), draws (sX), away wins (s2), and their sum sN = s1+sX+s2
Success rate, %
Ratios 100*s1/n1, 100*sX/nX, 100*s2/n2, and their sum (PP)
The last sum of success rates PP = 100*s1/n1+100*sX/nX+100*s2/n2 is considered an
integral performance/predictability index. It is highlighted by bold font.
Note! The contents of the above table can be reproduced
within Odds Wizard software (menu Tools -> Performance analysis).
Second table shows how many wins or wins+draws (number and %) had actually
taken place at various levels of computed probabilities for home (away) wins
for those events. For example, the line
Computed Success Wins+ Success
probabilities, Games Wins rate, draws rate,
%, >= % %
85 305 277 90,8 300 98,4
indicates that in 305 games, computed probabilities for the home wins (1)
were equal or greater than 85%, and there were 277 successfully
predicted home wins (1), and 300 successfully predicted home
wins+draws (1X).
