Archive Odds

[jazzfish]

Hi Alex,

I have been looking at the archive odds with great interest recently - very good idea by the way. Could you tell me how/when you exort these odds so that I can get a better idea of how to consider them? E.g. isdo you export on the same day/time each week or different days/times?

Kind regards
JF

[melcon]

Hi!

Question belongs to the same topic so I hijack your thread, hope thats ok.

I have analysed over 3000 picks, which I get from the Odds Archive. They show good profit but in reality I get a much smaller ROI. Not bad but I looked for the problem.

One thing came to my mind during entering the results. There I found out that the pick has changed from Hometeam in Reality to the Awayteam (according to OW odds < Bookie odds).

some Example.
The updated results for Scottish third League shows me in OW software

Albion - Elgin 1.89 3.94 4.58

in your archive file:

Albion Rovers FC- Elgin City FC 2.15 3.75 3.72

Elgin won by 3-0.


No other games where played on this gameday before.


So In assume that you sometimes take the new odds AFTER the result was priced in, what makes backtesting senseless obviously, or are there other reasons why the pices could change without league games beeing played?

Other leagues (e.g. France Ligue 1, Dutch Eredivisie) are spot on.

[spec]

Hi!

I have analysed over 3000 picks, which I get from the Odds Archive. They show good profit but in reality I get a much smaller ROI. Not bad but I looked for the problem.

.

If you don't mind me asking what is your expected ROI ?

Also, what column contains the outcomes of the matches ? if there is no outcome then how to import the match results into XL files.

Odds archive is a great idea, I agree

[Alex]

That's right. Odds are not fixed in Odds Wizard. They are changed upon completion of every game, and are computed on-the-fly on the basis of all past games.

Archive files are provided just for reference purposes, and not intended to be used otherwise. They are calculated at Saturday evening before the most events have begun, but some events have already completed like the mentioned game. This is the reason why they do not contain results. However one can easily add any desired column.

Spec:
Expected ROI is heavily depends on the way of how you combinate your stakes. Stake Wizard bet optimizer computes such combinations that provide the maximum ROI. In a reality, ROI is distributed as any other variate value. You can view Risk distribution diagram in Stake Wizard reports: Stake Wizard -> Variants -> View reports -> Diagrams -> Risk distribution. This diagram is the same as ROI distribution.