Oddswizard new version 2.5.0.905

[trueblue2]

Hi Alex,
Thank you for producing the new version. Could you tell me the answers to the following :
1. How does the 2015 algorithm differ from the 2007 one ?
2. Can you tell me why on the 2007 versions the trend comparison base has been set to 100 on certain leagues. and on the 2015 version it is only set to 10 ? This will affect the amount of blue boxes ? What trend comparison base do you recommend ? It also affects the Over / Unders
3. The new Attack and Defence ratings ? Were these used on the 2007 version - just that they were not shown ? If not, have the Intototal ratings used to calculate Over / Under changed ? Is it likely therefore that the program will be more or less accurate in calculating the amount of goals scored in a game using the 2015 algorithm ? From what I can see using the 2015 algorithm on the Over Unders market changes the odds significantly compared to the 2007 version. Do you recommend using the 2015 version ?

Thanks Alex for your hard work.

[Alex]

1. New algorithm uses improved probability distribution of scored goals.

2. Trend comparison base is recommended to be set to 10% of depreciation period. Default value is still 200 days, but for most leagues DP=900, and thus trend comparison base can be set to 100 days. DP and trend comparison base are user defined values, and therefore must be checked by users. Note that trend comparison base does not affect the odds, but only the number of violet/blue cell.

3. Attack and defence strength variables were calculated but have not been shown in the previous versions. So introducing these variables in the teams table does not affect the odds (in particular under/over) as well.

Yes, it is recommended to use 2015 algorithm. But those who believe that previous algorithm was better, can easily revert to one.