NFl Handicaps

[trueblue2]

The NFl handicaps seem way off using Oddswizard compared to the Bookies :

For example -

New Orleans v Arizona ( Arizona +9 ) - Oddswizard 1.2 Betfair 1.78 Result : Lost
Minnessota v Cleveland ( Cleveland +6.5 ) Oddswizard 1.33 Betfair 2.06 Result : Won
New England v Tampa Bay ( Tampa +7 ) Oddswizard 1.42 Betfair 2.04 Result : Lost
San Francisco v Indiannapolis ( Indiannapolis +9.5 ) Oddswizard 1.42 Betfair 2.06 Result : Won
Seattle v Jacksonville ( Jacksonville + 19 ) Oddswizard 1.012 Betfair 1.89 Result : Lost

The prices on Oddswizard seem way off. Is this because it is early in the season ? Does Oddswizard make better predictions the further the season goes on ? What are Users past results like using the handicap prices on the NFL ?

Also on the Soccer, does Oddswizard make better predictions as the season goes on ? Alex, your input would be greatly appreciated here.

[Alex]

Despite of the fact that first games in a season are not recommended to bet on,
and some OW prices are indeed way off, using Stake Wizard bet optimizer gives
impressive results for the mentioned 3rd round:


You can check it yourselves using the following stake file (or compile it manually):
http://www.newhavensoft.net/cp/NFL-3rd.stk.

As you see, complex bet {ABCDEFGHI} is distributed over 9 single and 18 double parlay
stakes. Look also at risk distribution diagram to be aware of your risks.

[trueblue2]

So are you saying that it is better to bet on the Match Odds markets in NFL ? Which are likely to be more correct ? The Match Odds markets or the Handicap markets ?

Do the match odds prices on soccer produce better returns long term than using the Asian handicap markets if using Oddswizard odds ?

Surely both markets should both be statistically correct prices ?

[Alex]

That's right. Match odds seem to produce better results. Here is 4th round complex 16 component (9 singles and 7 doubles) bet:



and corresponding stake file for lazy users: http://www.newhavensoft.net/cp/NFL-4th.stk.