New member

[cosmic]

Hello, I 'm a new member.
I like your forum because you have a scientific approach to betting.

I tried to create something similar two years ago during the world cup and after, but there was no life. Only two or three.
I guess people don't find it popular or I 'm not good at attracting crowds, or both.

So I look forward to find some friends here.

My method is to look around for value bets.
Football prediction is not an exact science.
It's not like balls we put in a jar and there are x white balls, y red, z black and we draw.
But everyone tries to make it look that way, including the bookies who set up the prices.

Anyone who tries to do this job, punter or bookie operates between two natural limits.
The low limit is the number 1/3. If you know absolutely nothing and make random guesses then your probability score is going to be 1/3.
The high limit is the number 1. If you know everything and you are god then you never miss and you score 1.

The typical scores of people who think of themselves as connoisseurs is 40% ± 2%.
In the premier it's about 38% in some easy leagues it can go up to 42%.
Those are our strengths and let nobody kid himself he can go higher.

The task is to score a tad higher than the bookie, in the predictive strength scale.
The task is to know that a value bet you work out is a true value bet.

One can easily make a mistake.
Let me describe a simple silly mistake.
I come and say to you "let's go to the casino, they pay 33 to 1 on the double six and as I have worked out the double six has a probability of 1/30" !
You believe me - it's going to be doomsday, because what I described as a value bet was not a value bet.
The probability of the double six is in fact 1/36 but suppose again -for the sake of argument- that while this is true, it is not such a simple thing to work out but requires the use of several books of calculus. So poor me, I made just a little mistake !

It's this type of situation we are confronted with, when we try to fight against the bookies and we must know when a suggested value bet is really a value bet and not rubbish.
In each and every individual case, the ball will of course decide the outcome, but all this is meant to work in the long run.

I have done some work on the above things and I 'd like to know what others have done - so we both gain something if possible.