Tips on using Odds Wizard

[Alex]

Some generic tips on using Odds Wizard:

1. Compare fair (produced by Odds Wizard) and the line (bookie's) odds. If you are going to bet on Asian hadicaps or U/O, adjust AHO base or Total base if necessary before that. Take the odds meeting the criterion Line > Fair. In the latest version, these odds are highlighted by green tints when compared to the fixed bwin.com current odds.

2. Check the team's motivation and injuries from the other sources if it appears that Line >> Fair, especially at the end of the regular season. Always beware of the first an last games in a season!

3. Select only those matches where your team of choice does not go down, and the opposite team does not go up. Look at the menu Charts -> Team vs team to check trends. The latest version automatically highlights unfavourable odds by violet/blue color (Odds -> Apply trend hints).

4. Feed all selected pairs to Stake Wizard tool. It is recommended to set the target fund in the range of (5-10)*(Initial fund), limit accumulators by 6, limit number of subcomponents by 100, mode = Regular. Start calculations.

5. When completed, check the value of Z ave for the top bet structure. If it is less than 4%, then in order to avoid possible computation errors, use your patience to wait for the next week's odds. Otherwise place a bet in a full concordance with the bankroll distribution: x0 - set aside, x1, x2,.. - components of a complex bet.

[rhindmann]

What is the relationship between ratings and in-totals? Why when comparing team vs team one team is higher in ratings and when checking in-totals its just the opposite. The lower team in ratings graph is now above the other?

[Alex]

Ratings are indicators of team's strength while intotals are indicators of contribution to the total goals. Intotals are usually higher for the strongest and weakest teams while the ratings are always higher for the strongest teams.

[xej]

5. When completed, check the value of Z ave for the top bet structure. If it is less than 4%, then in order to avoid possible computation errors, use your patience to wait for the next week's odds. Otherwise place a bet in a full concordance with the bankroll distribution: x0 - set aside, x1, x2,.. - components of a complex bet.

I have a doubt about point number 5. I have selected 3 teams where fair < line. I will write an example from my results.
I have made the calculation and I get in the first line:
Variants (ABC)
Zave % = 24% (it's bigger than 4 so it's good)
X0= 10.89 (should i bet 10.89 euros on a combined bet of a+b+c ?) when you say set aside, what do you meant ? i'm not english sorry ....
X1 = C 7.05 ( should i bet 7.05 euros on C ?)
X2 = BC 3.63 (should i bet in a combo of b+c 3.63 euros ?)
x3 = AC 3.43 (should i bet in a combo of a+c 3.43 euros ?)


Then i have more varianst AC, BC, C, AB ... should i proceed to bet on each x0, x1, x2, x3 ... for all the different variants if z ave % is bigger than 4 ?

thanks in advance ... a practice example would be very nice to understand who to proceed to bet on selections ...

[Alex]

That's correct except of X0. X0 is to be set aside, i.e. not for betting. You could see ABC (what you've confused with X0) among multiple bets if the minimum stake is low enough or zero.

Zave=4% is an empirical threshold. Some users who operate with large amounts ignore it at all.

[Kenny]

Alex, thank you for your generic advice on how to use OW.

Currently the following puzzles me.

Given 2 different soccer games in 2 different leagues with the exact same fair and line odds combination.
Let's say game 1 is in France and game 2 is in Belgium.
From performance analysis one can see that OW success rate of Belgium is greater than that of France.

Is there a (mathematical) significant difference which game to choose (and feed to stake wizard)?
Is it in general better to choose games from leagues with higher success rate?

Which leagues/games can be favored over others from a mathematicians point of view?
Maybe you have other experiences regarding game selection that you can share with us?


Last question for now:
How should we read OWs low success rate of ATP tennis league?

[Alex]

I don't have rigorous math proof, but better overall performance of a league implies more accurate odds. Look at Tools -> Performance analysis -> More, column Rate % (relative rate of actual wins of home team) at the computed probability level >=50%. The values for Belgium and France are 62.3% and 55.5%, respectively (without accounting trends).

How should we read OWs low success rate of ATP tennis league?

There are no draws and away wins in tennis. The latter is due to the fact that there is no actually home advantage. That is why total success rate consists only of home wins that actually comprise ALL wins. Therefore success rates in tennis can be compared only with those of different ground surfaces.

[amidel]

Some generic tips on using Odds Wizard:

5. When completed, check the value of Z ave for the top bet structure. If it is less than 4%, then in order to avoid possible computation errors, use your patience to wait for the next week's odds. Otherwise place a bet in a full concordance with the bankroll distribution: x0 - set aside, x1, x2,.. - components of a complex bet.

Hi Alex,

I think one should take advantage of every opportunity to profit from betting.
Fair odds 1.5 and Lay odds 1.7, give a Z ave % of 1.07%, but (Fair odds 1.5 and Lay odds 1.7)x4 give a Z ave % of 4.32%.
Why not keep the bet fund constant over a x number of periods until Z ave % => 4.0 % ?
The strategy is crude, but you will probably reach your goal faster.

Regards

Amir

[Alex]

First of all, I would like to thank you for your return to the forum.
The idea seems to be attractive, but (Fair=1.5 and Line=1.7) x 4 must come from 4 independent events with the same odds. In my opinion, we cannot arbitrarily multiply the same event in order to increase Z ave, no matter what betting fund is currently available.

A notice for all forum visitors: all amidel's posts used to be highly valued, and there is no any doubt that they will be such in the future.

[amidel]

Thank you for your kind words.

Sorry for being unclear. Let me illustrate:

Week 1; Bet A; Z ave % 1.12
Week 2; Bet B; Z ave % 1.09
Week 3; Bet C; Z ave % 1.71
Week 4; Bet D; Z ave % 1.55

If Bet A, B, C and D were to appear in the same week, {ABCD} Z ave % would be 5.48

{ABCD} Z ave % 5.48 is very close to the sum of, {A} 1.12, {B} 1.09, {C} 1.71 and {D} 1.55

http://www.speedyshare.com/files/24349709/stake.stk

Regards

Amir

[Alex]

It might work because those 4 events are independent. But in practice we can't get the whole set of odds because sportsbooks usually publish their prices for ordinary matches 4-5 days before the event.

[amidel]

I agree.

[kwong]

Hi all,

I recently discovered OW and am hopelessly trying to wrap my head around this amazing software.
As an avid football fan and a punter this tool is god send, however, I am struggling big time trying to figure out how to utilize the s/w.

Alex have replied to my email call for help and while I have been pouring over the guide and the forums, I am still no closer to understanding how this s/w works or how I can get it to produce the results I was hoping for.

I bet predominately in Asian Handicap Rules as it is by far the most popular form of wager where I come from and I see that OW have built in such features to predict the outcome, however, the the basic use of this amazing s/w is still beyond me.

So far, it seems to me that I need to update the tool by clicking on Radar icon to update information on all the leagues that OW processes.
Then I can choose the leagues to view the teams and upcoming matches.

My questions are as follows:
1. How do I generate the odds? Do I click Tools >> Stake Wizard 4? (literally, i.e. I do not have to select anything else?)
When I enter the Stake Wizard screen for English league I only see 3 line item matches and the date says it is in 2007? Am I doing this right?

2. I leave most input fields untouched and then click Start - stats start showing up but I do not see any information for Asian Handicap?

3. Alex mention to look at Z Ave % and if it is less than 4% then it is not a recommended bet - am I interpreting this correct?

Apologies for the very basic-sounding question, I can see that there are some very intelligent people here but I would appreciate some layman help here for me to navigate the tool.

Thanks a lot for your advice and please feel free to share your opinions as I really can use all the help I can get.

Cheers,
Kevin

[Alex]

Thank you for appreciation.

1. When opened at first time, Stake Wizard shows three samples events. It doesn't matter how they are old. Only Fair and Line columns are significant for the further results. First of all, initiate a new stake file by choosing File -> New. Then you may either feed the odds manually here in S/W or return back to the main screen of Odds Wizard, select the odds cell of your interest by the left mouse button, and right-click menu item Feed to Stake Wiz (Ctrl-F). This simple operation will feed the odds into the S/W. If you have already shown Bwin line odds, then both line and fair odds will be fed. Otherwise only fair odds will be fed in this way, and the line odds value has to be entered manually in S/W. Click green arrow button to start calculations when you have filled up bets table with events/odds of your interest.

2. To see information on Asian handicaps, you must feed AHO odds pairs Fair/Line in the S/W first. Then they will be taken into computations along with all others odds pairs Fair/Line.

3. That's right. Zave = 4% is a recommended limit for confidence probability 95%. It is equal to expected ROI = 104%. For greater Conf P, one can take less Zave percent.

[kwong]

Hi Alex,

Thanks for the clarification. I think I am slowly getting onto the right track.
My next question:
1. Where do I get the line odds from? And with Asian handicaps, what happens if the handicaps offered by the bookies are not the same?

2. With some leagues I am seeing full odds and others the odds table is empty, does that mean data is not yet available? If so, when are they normally processed? Is it within 48 hours before game day?

3. Lastly, with this tool, does that mean I will have to create New Stake Files for the matches I am keen to lay a bet on? i.e. I decide which matches I want to bet on and then input into Stake Wizard the line odds to ascertain if the possibility of success is high (i.e. Z Ave % > 4)?

Thanks a lot and I really appreciate your help, please pardon my stupid questions.

Sincerely,
Kevin Wong