Maximising Profits Using OW

[jazzfish]

Hi OW users,

I've been using OW for around two years now and in that time have collected a large database of selections. I have also placed a large number of perceived value bets with varying levels of success. Overall I have made money using the program and I believe it is an excellent peice of software. However, in order to make serious money I believe there needs to be a significant element of human judgement exercised to filter out spurious selections. As with any software, OW is not aware of a number of factors which influence the probability of each outcome. For example:

Injuries
Morale
Manager changes
Special fixtures (e.g. derbies historically display a smaller home advantage than 'normal' fixtures)
Significant player changes (e.g. Man City)
Promotions and relegations

I have spent some time thinking of the best ways of incorporating this information into selections and have some ideas which I would be happy to share with serious partners. However, my limited knoweldge of foreign leagues and lack of language skills means that I am unable to do the research I would like to for as many leagues as I would like. Also, keeping tabs on a large number of teams would take longer than I have. Is anyone interested in working together on this forum to filter OW selections in an attempt to maximise profits? If so please reply to this post and tell us your background, experience with OW and thoughts on how a profit can be made using the software.

Kind regards

JF

[rooshdee1280]

It is an excellent idea JF,let's wait for other Betting Pro decision.

[majestece]

Hello jazzfish and rooshdee1280,
I also have been using OW for two years, however I have never put any emotion on the OW picks. Just see the green lights and pick them It was just so. What you said is the adding user action, vision, information etc. Statistics are good for picking the right choice and if we add our information such as key player injuries, manager changes weather conditions (in winter, snowy games ) it wil be much more profitable.
I am on what you want to do and try to share my experiences information. What i am suggesting is;

We can go over the OW early hours in the day and select the green lighted games,
Gathering information on the selected plays,
Sharing the odds some different bookies and eliminate if it should be eliminated,
Picking and playing the selected play on the best offering odds bookies if possible (using multiple bookmakers will be good)
The stake should be the half of what OW offers,
Wait until close the game time (1 hour before)
Go over again the before selected plays and look if there is signifacant changes because sometimes odds can be downgraded or upgraded according to the public plays or smart moneys.
If the significant changes on our side, stake half of what OW offer for staking (this will be increase our profit)
If the signifacant changes wont be on our side (for example if the Zave decrease under 4) leave that play with the early played half of the stake.

In the soccer i have been using like that,
In the american sports especially in NFL and NBA, handicaps are changes as you all know,
For example what i do on NBA is, selecting the green ones is easy but what i do is, selecting the over/unders and point spreads,
If for example the line is for O/U in the bookie is 198 and i look at the OW for that game, if the OWs O/U is somehow different than the line at the bookmaker i also play them too.
O/U is 198 at bookie, O/U is 188 at OW, i will play then the over for that game.
O/U is 211 at bookie (golden state game lol ), O/U is 205 at OW, i will play under for that game.
Point spreads are same like o/u.

What is my selection is for O/U and point spread is, the difference sould be more than 5. You have it 6,7,8. However if you increase much, your quantity decreases so much and you dont have any action to bounce back.

These are my experinces and suggestions. Look forward to your suggestions and improvements.
I am really willing to turn this thread into a good winning picks and cashes.
Best of luck all of you

[jazzfish]

Hi Majestece,

Interesting post. A few comments/questions:

1) At present how many selections do you make per week? Am I right to presume you bet with soccer and NHL/NBA/NFL/NBA?
2) 'Gathering information on the selected plays': this is the key and we need to think about how best to do it. Which leagues do you have a good knowledge of?
3) 'Picking and playing the selected play on the best offering odds bookies if possible (using multiple bookmakers will be good)': I agree with this. Odds Portal is the best website to use in my experience and using the best bookmakers makes a massive difference to profits
4) Not sure if I agree with using Stake Wizard as a way of calculating stake size. Have you kept a record of your stakes using SW and compared with level stakes? Would be interesting to know the results. In my experience OW has a fundamental error with the calculation of value. There is no correlation between perceived OW value and profits so SW cannot work.
5) How many selections have you made in total and what have your overall results been?

If you don't want to answer these questions on the forum feel free to PM me with your email address. I am of course happy to answer any questions about my own experiences by email.

Cheers JF

[majestece]

Hello again,

1-Since i am betting on in totals of NBA/NFL point spreads etc, in addition to the OWs selection of course and according to the weeks , it differs. Week average is around 65-85. There are some busy days on American sports lol At present i am on flat betting since there are lots of selections. Yes you are right and with the help of OW tennis is also. But everyone has a favorite, my favorite is ice hockey which is quite unpredictable. Next season i will be on MLB for beginner advance to make an investment for future years.

2-I live in Turkey and I know Turkish soccer teams manager changes injuries big matches etc., moreover i am good at german bundesliga england premier. Yes i also know the France leagu but hate that I like american sports, so i can gather information on NHL, e.g. starting goalies trends etc.In NBA and NFL power ratings rankings etc, i can gather.

3-Yes, if one have an account of in an exchange book that will be the best.

4-Lets say we will consider on staking plan and share it to reach optimum valued plan.

5-That is the hardest question because i have no exact value for the selections of only OW. At first i was keeping it seperately but then lots of games plays live bets comes and you know it is boom. Ithink this thread will be very good example of using OW and OWs succes with the help of anyone interested.

I hope you got the answers.

I suggest a 3 list of sports/leagues, first we can make a list of the leagues that we know better, second also make an another list that we know so so, the third list will be the one that we know tiny little knowledge or no knowledge that is happen to be in the OW (such as crotia soccer:))

[majestece]

For example, I dont know so much about this league but while rangering OW i come with this,

06.12.2010 Chile Soccer
Ñublense - Union San Felipe

Fair for away win is 2,78, the line is 5.
Fair for double chance X2 is 1,56, the line is 2,15

Nublense is on the spot of relegation and this is the last match.

So, this will be no bet.

[majestece]

Another example,

Charlotte Bobcats - New Jersey Nets
for totals, the line is 184.5 for O/U, in the OW it is 194.5

According to my system the play will be over 184.5

Toronto Raptors - Oklahoma City Thunder
line is 208 for O/U, in the OW it is 206

According to my system no play as the totals very close

Denver Nuggets - LA Clippers
line is at 213.5, it is 206 in OW

According to my system the play will be under 213.5

This is the simplest way as there can be some other factors should be taken into consideration that we have mention above messages.

[majestece]

@jazzfish

What is your decision on the sharing experiences and make a OW thread ?

[jazzfish]

Hi Majestece, apologies for the slow response. I have been away for a couple of weeks. I am still keen to share selections and have good knowledge of England and Scotland and ok knowledge of the big European leagues. I also use a couple of good websites which show injuries for each team and recent form to filter out selections.

What is your email address? Maybe it's easier to email.

Cheers
JF

[majestece]

Hi jazzfish,
Many soccer leagues are in the middle of season and we could use this free time. We will store energy for 2011 new year and the rest half of the soccer season.

Best of luck all

P.S.: @jazzfish, please look at your private message.

[rickstore]

Hello guys

I have just gone through the forum after abit of a gambling break due to christmas and things.. I like your ideas and have had many of the same thoughts in the past. I am just getting ready to put another deposit in betfair with my main focus on football trading using a method based around OW and also place a few straight bets if i can find some selections i like. Just wondering how you guys are getting on with your research and have you had any success? Also i was wondring how you were getting on with your american spreads i did use your method once when i stumbled on an OW spread of something like +186.5 and a bookies line of +165.5 in a GSW match however it lost by miles and i never really looked further into it. it is an area iam going to go into again though so it would be good to know if you have had good results?

Thanks Richard