Wrong odds

[onliner]

I noticed that odds for correct score for English Premier League are wrong(at least for 0:0).
This makes us to think that other odds may be incorrect too.
Any comments?

[Alex]

How do you think that they are indeed wrong? Just by comparison with those produced by some bookies? For your information: some sportsbooks are already using Odds Wizard for computation of correct scores odds as well as other odds. Are you aware that Odds Wizard's odds by default do not contain bookie's profit margin, and therefore you may think of them to be somewhat higher than usually published odds?

[onliner]

First of all some words about me: I am not newbie in sport bets and games at all. I understand what fair odds and bookie's margin are.

I like WO. It looks like very good tool to have long term sucsess in betting.
But it also looks like "Black Box" which gives us odds. When one is going to bet real money he wants to be sure that odds from "Black Box" have EV=0.00%.

With this reason in my mind I decided to check odds by comparing with statistic of last games. And discovered that for correct score 0:0 in English Premier League WO gives odds more than 12.0 almost always. And in average these odds are about 15.0(at glance). But real statistic of EPL says that correct score 0:0 happens in about 8-9% of games. That means fair odds must be about 11.0-12.0 in average.
It's clearely that using OW's odds to LAY correct score EPL matches leeds to buncrupcy in long run.

[Alex]

Please look at "0:0" EPL stats figures below:

1997/1998 - 8.68%
1998/1999 - 12.89%
1999/2000 - 5.79%
2000/2001 - 7.37%
2001/2002 - 8.95%
2002/2003 - 5.53%
2003/2004 - 10.79%
2004/2005 - 7.89%
2005/2006 - 8.42%
2006/2007 - 8.95%
2007/2008 - 6.84%
2008/2009 - 11.05%
2009/2010 - 8.42%
2010/2011 ~ 6.86%

As it can be clearly seen from the above stats, percentage of "0:0" scores varies in the wide range from 5.53% to 12.89%. The last 3 figures indicate the tendency towards decrease of 0:0's. The last partial season average 6.86% corresponds to the average fair odds ~15.

I would also like to draw your attention to the menu Charts -> Intotals where you can visually estimate the tendency to score more goals (and less 0:0) even during the last 2010/2011 season. That means that true average 0:0 odds must be even greater than 15.

Nevertheless, I don't recommend you to lay or back the odds which you do not trust in. Just take another program.

[onliner]

The average percent of those thirteen seasons from 98/99 to 2010/11 equals 8.46%. This corresponds to odds 11.82.
It's of cource understandable that different seasons may have different figures. But lets see what odds gave OW at the end of season 2008/2009. It was a season with a lot of 0:0 games(11.05%). That means odds for 0:0 must be lower than usually.

From odds archive we take:
02/05/2009 average odds for 10 games is 17.00
09/05/2009 average odds for 9 games is 15.50
16/05/2009 average odds for 9 games is 16.40
23/05/2009 average odds for 10 games is 16.50

And we see odds from OW were greatly more than average(all seasons) odds. Meanwhile at that time they must be even lower than the average 11.84.

[Alex]

I agree that there might be some disputable odds in that season. But computing odds is a very complex task that requires constant research efforts towards better accuracy. And we of course well aware of that.