Need your help.. my tips are always loosing..

[geffect]

Gents,

I really need your help

I have now a really bad run on my selected tips.. and the bad runs are always longer and more intense than the winnings. I read carefully all hints here, also the most important rules like FAIR<LINE, check stats, check form curve, Z Ave above 4%. ect but still loosing much at the moment.

Then I tried to concentrate more on favs playing at home, line odds aroud 1.7, looking also for Asian Handicaps where LINE Odds are around 1.9 (so fair odds about 1.3-1.6), but from about 20 selections mixed from all leagues, only 4-5 wins. It looks like the bookies are correct with their higher odds... my fair odds with 1.2 - 1.4 are really rarely turning out to be favorites.

Also a look at the risk distribution graph I try to be somwhere in the area 30:70 .. so 30% bad and 70% wins. But actually its like I m always only loosing...

Anybody else with this experience? Whatelse could I do?

Often I get some weird reccommendations from SW - for example if I have 10 matches to play, then on bet A it recommends me to place a really big stake, on all other medium to small. And bet A is included in every of the lets say 7 parlay bets. Now bet A lose... and all bets together makes a minus.. this does not make a sense, or does it?

Even if in theory Oddswizard is correct, how do you manage this in real life?

Thanks

[Alex]

I suggest to view the following topic on a similar subject:

Hands on use of Odds Wizard including results
http://newhavensoft.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=255&p=645&hilit=edge#p645

According to the backtest presented on the XLS file, effective betting with positive balance requires Kelly criterion in the range 0.2-0.6.
To check that, click Kelly mode, Accum=1, and check the value of (Fund-x0)/Fund. Then turn those values back.

[geffect]

First of all, Thank you for replying to my post!

After reading the thread carefully one question arises about the P-diagram - I did not find any topics here in the forum about this digram (I read also the help file from the OW, but its difficult to understand ).

So as conclusion can we say that the optimal P-diagram looks this way that the peak of the curve should be between 0,2 and 0,6 with using the Kelly criteria and Acc=1? If yes, switch back to regular mode and then I know that I have the optimum stake, that is neither too low nor high?

[Alex]

Here is simple example on the Screen1.png

Screen1.png (25.41 KiB) Viewed 35069 times

Fair=2, Line=3 produces stake=250. P-diagram shows that the peak does not match the stake when Kelly is on. Intersection of the curve and horizontal line Pconf=95% has X coord = 0.75. That corresponds to Kelly criterion 0.25. So keeping in mind the recommended range 0.2-0.6 of Kelly criterions such intersections must have X coords 0.4..0.8.

[jazzfish]

I'm afraid the truth is that Odds Wizard is fine for a foundation but it is nowhere near enough to make a profit alone as the models are based on results only.

Football markets have moved on a great deal in the last 10 years and most successful bettors consider things such as shots, attacks etc.

I wish you luck.

[Alex]

Hi Jazzfish. Shots, attacks, etc are already on the way to release for the advanced users.
Just look at the screenshot. Besides of goals, new format will contain corners, yellow and red cards, penalties, free kicks, danger free kicks, attacks, danger attacks. Moreover the program will analyse and display statistics about goals due to all of the above.

[trueblue2]

When will this new version be released Alex ?

[edo]

Hi Jazzfish. Shots, attacks, etc are already on the way to release for the advanced users.
Just look at the screenshot. Besides of goals, new format will contain corners, yellow and red cards, penalties, free kicks, danger free kicks, attacks, danger attacks. Moreover the program will analyse and display statistics about goals due to all of the above.

what do you mean by "advanced users" ? is that just a selected group of subscribers...

cheers,

edo

[Alex]

I meant new type of subscription for these new features. All of them require paid web service. Expected renewal price will be about $100 per year. Naturally only advanced users will be interested in this special version.

[edo]

I meant new type of subscription for these new features. All of them require paid web service. Expected renewal price will be about $100 per year. Naturally only advanced users will be interested in this special version.

please let me know... is this available now... IF NOT when will this be launched... let me know Alex.

thank you very much

[edo]

I'm afraid the truth is that Odds Wizard is fine for a foundation but it is nowhere near enough to make a profit alone as the models are based on results only.

Football markets have moved on a great deal in the last 10 years and most successful bettors consider things such as shots, attacks etc.

I wish you luck.

the only way you can achieve success in this industry is by knowing how to integrate qualitative and quantitative data to get the results you seek... OW is a quantitative data tool (EXTREMELY USEFUL) if you know what you are looking for from it... you will never achieve a successful level just by seeking value at this one specific area... and even if you are able to correctly process all data (quant + quali) you need to have a robust understanding on how the betting world/market works...

if i would have had this tool (OW) back in the 80's and even 90's....

[Palendrinho]

Here is simple example on the Screen1.png

Screen1.png

Fair=2, Line=3 produces stake=250. P-diagram shows that the peak does not match the stake when Kelly is on. Intersection of the curve and horizontal line Pconf=95% has X coord = 0.75. That corresponds to Kelly criterion 0.25. So keeping in mind the recommended range 0.2-0.6 of Kelly criterions such intersections must have X coords 0.4..0.8.

Hello Alex,
1.Can you please explain in easiest way with simple words and some example when is the perfect match of P-dagram, because in such a example you talking that peak does not match the stake when Kelly is on but at the end you talk about recommended range of Kelly which is 0.2-0.6 with intersections of X coords between 0.4-0.8.
Actually in this example P-diagram have range of 0.2-0.6 with intersections of X coords @ 0.75 which is between 0.4-0.8...
2. When you say range of 0.2-0.6 of Kelly did you mean about curve when it begins to climb or?
3. Intersections of X coords can be adjustable with stake manualy?
I have more question but let we start from thes. Because more or less i can understand evething about OW but this P-diagaram is killing me...
Also last weekend match Kilmarnock vs Rangers Home Team AH+1.0 F=1.19 L=1.8 where Intersection of the curve and horizontal line Pconf=95% has X coord = 0.25 and where curve is strating to climb from 0 (zero) what is out of recommended range 0.2-0.6 of Kelly but odds on Home team has deep green and the oposite is violet what you say it is a perfect match but P-digrama for this game is confusing me.
Thank you

[Alex]

First of all, I'd recommend to read help topic "Mathematical backgroud" where you can find out what is P-diagram.
Briefly, maximum in P-diagram (in Regular mode, not Kelly) shows portion of the bankroll to be set aside to reach target fund with minimum number of betting rounds. Another words, you bet the amount (1-k0)*Bankroll distributed over several stakes: singles, doubles and so on.

This optimization is performed by Stake Wizard. Optimal bet in Regular mode ensures that R95 betting rounds will be sufficient to reach target fund in Pconf (confident probability = 95% by default) cases. Maximum of the curve = Pconf in Regular mode.

So why did I show P-diagram for the Kelly mode?

One user (Pswirly) discovered that filtering out events not covered by the range (1-k0) = (1-x0) = 0.2-0.6 in Kelly mode enchances overall winning balance. While Kelly mode is not optimal for betting, it was just used as an indicator of what events should be included in the betting pool and what events should not. Favorable events are marked by not too deep and not too pale shades of green color in the odds table.

For your example Kelly mode gives (1-k0)=0.54. Regular mode - as shown on a sreenshot. As you can see, maximum of the curve corresponds to the ko=0.66 (X) and Pconf=95% (Y). Normally P-diagram should not be used in the normal process of betting, it is for math enthusiasts.

[trueblue2]

Alex,
Any more details about when the shots on target/ dangerous attacks version will be released? Is it near completion? End of this season maybe???

[Alex]

Yes, it will be released in summer.