Is the Z% more Important than the P%

Stake Wizard issues

Is the Z% more Important than the P%

Postby a3predict » Sun Dec 04, 2022 12:04 am

I have seen instances that a game is calculated to have P80% assurance with a very low Z%, below the required 4%. Is a game like that playable?
or
Is it better to play a game that might be low in P% say about 48% but high in Z%. This is giving me so many concerns as it is confusing me in what games to play.

Sometimes I get cases where I am able to find good well-balanced game for both criteria but not always. Kindly advise on what to do in scenarios like this.

Thanks, in anticipation.
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Re: Is the Z% more Important than the P%

Postby Alex » Sun Dec 04, 2022 4:32 am

Briefly: both values are important. Zave% is defined as an average bankroll growth in %, while p% is a probability of event equal to 100/(fair odds in decimal notation). For the multicomponent (multievent) complex bets, Zave% has the same meaning, while p% is a so called reduced probability, i.e. the probability of a single equivalent event. The same pertains to other values: L , R95, Rave, Zsuc%. Why do we need single event equivalents? Because the number of generated complex bet variants with dosens of single, double, triple, etc. components may be tremendous, and we need to analize their efficiency, and to compare with each other. This is possible when each complex variant is associated with some equivalent single event.
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Re: Is the Z% more Important than the P%

Postby a3predict » Sun Dec 04, 2022 10:45 am

The answer you gave seems confusing. Which of these two criteria takes precedence when selecting games?

Can I consider a P75% and Z3.35 as a valuable bet or I need the Z to be above 4%. Also is a P45% a good game to bet on?

Awaiting your reply.
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Re: Is the Z% more Important than the P%

Postby Alex » Sun Dec 04, 2022 1:37 pm

Stake Wizard in a Regular mode (default), minimizes the value of R95 - number of betting rounds required to achieve target fund with specified confidence probability (95% by default). Hence the top variant has minimum value of R95. In a Kelly mode, SW maximizes Zave%. While Kelly mode provides higher winnings than Regular mode, it is far more risky and often results in a dangerous overbetting.
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