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[jivany]

These are my 2 cents, based on my knowledge of sports betting, statistics, money management theory and my experience as a user of Odds Wizard/Stake Wizard. How much you should be willing to risk on a bet, or a series of bets, is a function of the expected value AND the probability of winning. As an example, let’s say we have two bets:
Bet A: Fair odds 1.5 Line odds 1.8
Bet B: Fair odds 4 Line odds 4.8
Both bets have the same expected value of 20% (1.8/1.5 - 1 = 4.8/4 - 1). However, the probability of winning is very different. Bet A has a probability of winning of 1/1.5 = 66.67% while Bet B only has a probability of winning of 1/4 = 25%. Hence, the variability of your bank roll if you play a series of Bet B will be a significantly greater than for Bet A.


My question is how can I determine through SW which bets I am looking at have a probability of winning?

[Alex]

The bet A placed alone has Z ave = 2.6% while the bet B has just 0.504%. Using Kelly mode of optimization, we'll reach the target fund 10000 on average by 89.76 betting rounds of the bet A, and 457.8 rounds of the bet B. This clearly indicates that bet A is much better that bet B. Stake Wizard however prefer complex bet {AB} with two single bets A and B, and double bet AB. Complex bet {AB} appears to be even better than alone bet A.