How do I win with OW

[Smith_13]

Hello!
I was advised to present this idea on the forum.

I have time to write to you about my idea. How do I win with OW.
Take for example the match Cagliari Calcio - AS Roma 25 Apr 2021
For myself, I made adjustments to see where the odds of winning decrease.
1. Preparation of a set of teams:
https://ibb.co/JkRHR3S
Leave only the teams participating in the championship. Others delete.
2. Options settings
I changed some names for myself:
Home advantage - Step Handicap
Depreciation period - Middle
Options look:
https://ibb.co/w4Z3TDY

The middle for approximately all leagues is within 5,000
Some I have already found for myself for sure.

I used to think that, for example, the odds of (0.25) 1.9 - 2.1 and (0.25) 2.1 - 1.9 are the same. But no. To do this, I realized that you need to use 0.125. Then you will understand why.

I do not take the total from the program as a total. For me, it is like an index that you need to pay attention to to understand which line the bookmaker is using.

https://ibb.co/JxzLbmc

Take for example the line from Bethard for this match.
Open odds:
3.55 3.95 2.05
Closed odds:
3.45 3.75 2.15

https://ibb.co/M16cwJP

In open odds - Index (total) = 3.25
Handicap multiple of 0.5 The favorite higher share (2.1)
I am changing the Handicap Step until I receive such conditions. Step = 1.25 (green color)
In the table, I wrote a few steps to see this.
It is seen that the coefficient for Roma's victory is raised, and for x2 it is reduced. (And look AH)

In closed odds - Index (total) = 3
Handicap multiple of 0.25 The favorite higher share (1.9)
Step = 0.25 (orange color)
Again, it is clear that Roma will not win. And it is also seen that x2 is reduced. Even Cagliari wins!

If you try the lines of all bookmakers, they all show Roma's loss. In different variations.
For example, I noticed a line from 1хbet in blue. 3,63 3,69 2,06
https://ibb.co/S65YzgF

The result of the match, 3-2, Roma lost.

P. S. Often the index offered by bookmakers is less than you can get in the table. I still do not know how to find a pattern for this. Or addiction.
I will be grateful for comments, evaluation or help.
I apologize for my English.

Regards, Smith_13

[Smith_13]

Hi Smith_13 a tutorial with a good idea
1.I did not understand, how to extract Step Handicap from the odds of the bookmaker using OW 1x2 Calculator
2.Step Handicap you extract from Open odds or Closed odds?
3. How did you get to a value of 5000 per championship at DP and Middle = 4700 for Italian League?
4.After taking the above steps, are you looking for the green odds displayed by OW?

Scream2012
Thanks for the question.
It has always been difficult for me to explain something, but I understand everything very, very much. So is my nature. But I will try))

1.I did not understand, how to extract Step Handicap from the odds of the bookmaker using OW 1x2 Calculator

You do not need to look for it in the converter. It must be entered independently in the field "Home advantage, balls"

2.Step Handicap you extract from Open odds or Closed odds?

he is constant. We are used to having a quarter handicap, but I think we need to introduce an octave handicap.
I always enter 0.125 by default and then increase or decrease with this step to get the multiplicity in the "converter" field of the AH and total
For example, today's match was:
Torino - Parma
I always look at one site (I do not want to advertise)
Here are the odds on it:

https://ibb.co/KNhw9Tq

pay attention to "Home advantage"

open
https://ibb.co/51YPDFT
close
https://ibb.co/dKQmFkg

Result 1-0
Torino win and I ))

3. How did you get to a value of 5000 per championship at DP and Middle = 4700 for Italian League?

long months of analysis. You can also open matches and analyze. it's interesting and exciting.
I don't really like football. And now I do not like when I see how everything is predicted))

4.After taking the above steps, are you looking for the green odds displayed by OW?

No. Because I probably have a problem with the computer))
I tried to find out why I did. But I did not receive a clear answer.
So I find a lesson this way))
Probably because I have Windows XP.
I can't put the program on another computer because it's tied to it.
Here's what it gives when you try:

https://ibb.co/t3yFb3N

Thanks for your attention. And sorry for my English
Smith_13

[ihraf]

Hello Smith,

I like your idea by manipulating the home adv, but I'm confused

the final odds after you add steps as you said is the odds for European Handicap, and why the program show the letter S and j for Asian handicap ?

[ihraf]

I don't understand how this makes sense comparing european handicap odds to a normal 1X2 odds ?

[Alex]

Hello Smith,
I like your idea by manipulating the home adv, but I'm confused
the final odds after you add steps as you said is the odds for European Handicap, and why the program show the letter S and j for Asian handicap ?

To avoid charset issue for the 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 symbols, use Odds > Handicap odds > Number.

[Smith_13]

I don't understand how this makes sense comparing european handicap odds to a normal 1X2 odds ?

You see that this is a European handicap. But you do not see where the bookmaker gives you the odds)) You do not pay attention that it is in the field of European handicap.
Under the pressure of money, the bookmaker is obliged to change the odds. In the previous match (Torino - Parma), the bookmaker a few hours before the match did not believe in Torino's victory. This was evident in the movement of the coefficients. But suddenly he changed his mind. And he had to put the right one, the one with which team 1 wins. This should be done carefully without paying attention. One could assume that the victory would be in one goal. But it is dangerous)
And about the letters, Alex has already described. Thanks, Alex.
I'm used to working with handicap letters.
Smith_13

[Smith_13]

Smith 13
In Torino I understood at the starting odds to put default 0.125 but at the final odds how did you get to 1,375?

Raised 0.125 until the Asian handicap is a multiple of 0.75 and the total is 3.
By the way, when lowering the odds to the favorite, the total "Under" (<) decrease less, and vice versa. Try on the converter.
There were still observations when the odds on the favorite decreases, and the total "Under" rises. In such cases, more often (80%) was a draw.

[ihraf]

Hello Smith,

About last night game between Torino and Parma, you can see I made some modification in the Depreciation Period, I only calculate games for this current season and look at the odds , there is no manipulating handicap, pure statistics.

DP :

DP

dp.JPG (81.78 KiB) Viewed 52835 times

Torino vs Parma fair odds baised on DP for the current season :

torino parma

TORINO PARMA.JPG (219.56 KiB) Viewed 52835 times

So based on the dropping odds in the bookies it means that Torino is gonna win.

[Smith_13]

Hello Smith,
About last night game between Torino and Parma, you can see I made some modification in the Depreciation Period, I only calculate games for this current season and look at the odds , there is no manipulating handicap, pure statistics.

Perfectly!
I do not claim anything. I shared my method and information for reflection: where do the odds come from and how are they manipulated by bookmakers. And also how I play. How to get closer to the more accurate truth.
All methods are good. Good luck!

Smith_13

[ihraf]

Yes bro I appreciate the fact that you are sharing with us your method.

We are here to learn.

[Smith_13]

Hello Smith
You can analyze a match today, to have it as an example. Thank you

Hello, Scream
Okay. But remember, I do not give any predictions for anyone. Everything I write is an example.
Let's take today's match:
Sparta Rotterdam - Vitesse
Different bookmakers gave different odds when opening, so I will consider two options:
1xBet: 3.28 - 3.62 - 2.13
bethard: 3.3 - 3.65 - 1.95

I set in the settings:
middle - 6200
as well as the starting point (it missed 12,09,21) the letter F
https://ibb.co/Qbxb2g7
https://ibb.co/3SJsLt6

Bookmakers do not believe in the victory of Vitesse.
This is when you open the odds.
For now, I will put "1x".
Now I'm waiting for the coefficients to close. It's about 5 minutes before the match. See you then.

[Smith_13]

Continuation
Slowly but surely, bookmakers approached the victory of Vitesse. Since the previous expectations were 1, I conclude for myself that the victory will be minimal, 1 goal.
My prediction is that Vitesse will win
For more risky - Vitesse EH-1 (X)

...now I will write the coefficients of the line.
https://ibb.co/F6BsXRp
I'm waiting for the result

[Smith_13]

Thank you very much I bet 1X

I lost. Probably because I was in a hurry))

[Smith_13]

And one more thing, Alex. I know you're reading. Please correct missed matches Ligue 1 (France):
https://ibb.co/FDV4wYx
Tnks

[Bobbyx]

Thanks for your work, although I did not understand anything)))
I have already suggeste creating a closed Telegram channel only for official subscriptions, where we would share our thoughts.