Tennis + MLB

[AimHigher]

I have downloaded the demo version and looked through the manual and what seemed to be the relevant posts back to 2006 but I could not find an answer to some of the questions I have so I figured I'd try to ask them here.

Does the tennis in-play odds functionality work such that the odds would change on a point by point basis during a match? If so, do I have to manually enter the score as the game progresses or is there a way to feed live scores to Odds Wizard and have the odds recalculated automatically, provided that my computer processing power is fast enough?
If the odds are not recalculated on a point by point basis, how does the in-play odds for tennis work?

For MLB, are the odds predictions based only on past scores (runs) only or is other factors such as pitcher match-up considered as well? Baseball in my opinion is quite different from other team sports since one player (the pitcher) has such a big impact on the outcome. So, assuming that pitcher match-ups are not considered, are there any users out there that use Odds Wizard for baseball that could share there view on how I could take the odds predictions that Odds Wizard calculates and adjust them for the specific pitcher match-up for a given game?

Lastly, is home field advantage included as part of the calculated odds prediction or is that an adjustment I should/would manually make? HFA seems to be a big factor in most, if not all, team sports so I would like to know if I should make my own adjustments. Either way, since home field advantage can also vary a lot based on team, e.g if their home arena has a non-standard layout, so knowing about how HFA has been included/not included in the odds predictions would be very usefull.

Thank you for your time

Aim

[Reconnoiterer]

Hi AimHigher,

I am no expert but I will pass on what I know. (Alex will correct me if I am wrong)

The tennis scores appear to update on a set by set basis and not on individual games within the set. So once a set is completed, the live score is imported by Oddswizard which then recalculates the current odds for that match.

I agree with what you are saying with MLB. The pitcher is an important part of the team and can contribute significantly to the outcome of the event. However this is the same for many sports where there are exceptional players on the field and their absence diminishes the strength of the team and their subsequent performance in the event. I think it is possible to manually give the team your own rating adjusted to what you think is right for say the main pitcher not playing in that event. For me it is too time consuming and too much trouble and whilst it may improve my profitability I have been able to make a profit without worrying about it too much.

For me, the key is the price and if it is significantly under compared to a bookmakers price, as signified by the deep green shading in Oddswizard, I would investigate further. It may be that the regular pitcher is out and for me that is a signal to give that event a miss. Or a star striker for a soccer match may be out injured.

As far as home team advantage, it is normally calculated in the ratings. You can remove the home team advantage by clicking in the 'N' checkbox on the far left of the screen for each game. For example, these are already ticked in the Soccer World Cup events as only South Africa gets the home advantage.

Cheers

[AimHigher]

Thank you very much for your detailed response. It was very helpful.

Aim

[Alex]

Thank you for all considerations. Pitchers are indeed important in baseball, and there is no means in Odds Wizard to take into account them as so far. This is the only thing I can agree upon.

Tennis scores and odds are updated on a game by game basis every 30 seconds. NOT set by set as you have assumed. Moreover, you can take any tennis match before the kickoff and vary the current score in the games table, click green arrow button and take a pleasure to view changed odds on a game by game basis. As you might know, double arrow button will change the scores and odds automatically according to the real event.

[AimHigher]

Alex,

Thanks for the added detail. If somehow future versions of Odds Wizard could incorporate pitcher stats if would be fantastic but I realize that it would require very different algorithms that would most likely be very baseball specific so it might not be worth the development effort. However, baseball is a great sport to bet on since there are so many games played during the season so in my opinion it might even be worth it have a separate version with baseball specific algorithms, provided that it is possible to create reliable algorithms for baseball.

For tennis, is Odds Wizard taking into account if each player is on serve or up/down a break? Particularly in men's tennis (and on hard surfaces) the server is much more likely, although it varies by player of course, to win a game if he is serving so the probability of winning the match is obviously different if the score is 4:3 with both players on serve vs 4:3 with one player up a break.

Aim