live betting and OW

[andrix]

there is long term gain if i bet on live soccer match when odds is in my favour ?
example:
at 70 minute goal for home team and now the match result is 1-0
betfair live odds for home win is 1.4
OW live odds for home win is 1.2
i know there is to many situation to considery.....
but in general and in long term,my money on 1.4 back is a good value bet ?
dear alex,please can you explain how OW calculate live odds ?
thanks to anyone that give me some advice and please excuse me for no good english language....

[Alex]

According to the theorem (please see the homepage) and Stake Wizard calculations, the pair L=1.4, and F=1.2 results in Rave=3.25% (i.e. ROI=103.25%). You have a 95% chance to make a ten-fold profit in as many as 165 betting rounds if you will bet 1/4 of your bankroll in each betting round.

Live odds are calculated on the basis of the fixed odds, current time, current score, statistical goals distribution over the match, and red cards. In general, calculation of odds requires knowledge of several areas of the math theory, and is being beyond of my specific math skills (in generalized polytopes). I know that it is still in the process of development, and has not been published yet.

Math theory of bet optimization can be found in the help topic Odds Wizard Guide -> Stake Wizard Guide -> Mathematical background.