Fixture analysis

[groggy]

I have an idea about fixture analysis. If you add this feature to your software maybe it will be very good to buy for customers. I am going to try my idea. There is a match between A team and B team. A team is 17 in the league table B team is 4 in the standing. According to bookie B team is favorite because of high standing. But when we start to fixture analysis we consider that A team has more difficult fixture than B team. How can I do this ? Here we go. I begin to look at A team matches from first day of league start. For example A team played with C team. C team is standing in the league table NOW 13 place. So 17-13 = +4, after that match A team played D team which is standing NOW 4 place in the league table. So 17-4 =+13, after all matches are calculated for A team there will be positive or negative value for A team. Then we calculate all games for B team. B team has positive or negative value as well. If A team has positive value for example +35 and B team has negative value for example -20, I think A team has had to more difficult matches than B team. B team has played generally with lower teams but A team has played with much stronger teams. After then I change fixtures. For example I assume A team is standing in 4 place and B team is standing 17 place in the table. After all hard working, I find values both A team and B team. And I start to analysis by using only values. If you add this kind of feature to your software, IMO it will be very good. Maybe you can add it to engine of adds wizard and oddswizard will be able to calculate more reliable odds for us. I am volunteer to share my opinion with anybody who is interesting my idea. Thanks for your attention.

[SilkBC]

Then we calculate all games for B team. B team has positive or negative value as well. If A team has positive value for example +35 and B team has negative value for example -20, I think A team has had to more difficult matches than B team. B team has played generally with lower teams but A team has played with much stronger teams.

Do you, by any chance, have any back-tested results to show that your analysis of fixture-toughness is a significant factor?

-SilkBC

[groggy]

Then we calculate all games for B team. B team has positive or negative value as well. If A team has positive value for example +35 and B team has negative value for example -20, I think A team has had to more difficult matches than B team. B team has played generally with lower teams but A team has played with much stronger teams.

Do you, by any chance, have any back-tested results to show that your analysis of fixture-toughness is a significant factor?

-SilkBC

There is always chance in any condition but I caught very good odds, for example udinesse vs chievo, I analysed both team's fixture, I realized that both team has same power, so I back chievo +1 and lay udinesse. There were a lot of matches analysed and I found this idea is useful for betting.

[Theuth]

Wouldn't you have to know the position in the league that each of the teams were at when they played each fixture?

Also, I think the first few fixtures of the season should be ignored as a lot of the teams have around the same points total and a loss or a draw can mean a drop of quite a few places.

Nice idea but the OW algorithm seems to working very well at the moment.

Theuth

[groggy]

Wouldn't you have to know the position in the league that each of the teams were at when they played each fixture?

Also, I think the first few fixtures of the season should be ignored as a lot of the teams have around the same points total and a loss or a draw can mean a drop of quite a few places.

Nice idea but the OW algorithm seems to working very well at the moment.

Theuth

It is not important first few fixtures, because I analyse current condition of the standing table . If I start to analyse A team fixture I use the current standing table. SO it doesn't important first weeks of leagues.

I agree with you about OW performans but Odds wizard usually keens making same mistakes when computing cup games. I don't trust odds wizard's odds about cup game (championship or uefa cup). I tend to use odds wizard only regular matches and league games.