| Newhavensoft forum »Newhavensoft.net forums » Odds Wizard » Performance Analysis Table question |
| 1. Oompa Lumpa - 23 January, 2008 - 04:06:33 |
| On the Performance Analysis, am I correct in saying that the greater the success rate % in the performance table then the better OW has been at predicting results in that division? And that as long as the figure isn't below 100% does that mean that if you had been betting on OW selection's where the line odds > fair odds then you should have broken even at the very worst (obvious assuming a large sample of games? I just want to be sure that I understand exactly what the success rate % of typically 105 - 109% means in layman's terms. |
| 2. Alex - 23 January, 2008 - 12:19:26 |
| That's right. The greater the success rate % in the performance table, the better OW performance and the greater predictability of a given league. Keeping in mind that computation algorithm is the same for all leagues, we may conclude that success rate % has been an index to predictability of a league. Success rate % depends on the range of teams' ratings. The greater the range, the greater the success rate %. Usually top national leagues have the greatest values of success rate % (110..120%). The teams of the minor leagues are usually closer by their ratings, and therefore the success rate is below 110%. International league EuroChamp is not an exception - it does feature the greatest range of teams' ratings. This results in success rate over 130%. There is no threshold (e.g. 100%) that can be considered as a criterion of betting efficiency. The latter is a matter of Stake Wizard calculations. |