Newhavensoft forum

**Bruno** · Newbie

An exemple:

OW give

Match A : HD = probability 85%
Match B : HD = probability 80%

If we decide to play combo :
Match A*Match B = Probaility 68% = 1.47

Book give :
Match A : H @ 1.40 and D @ 3.50
Match B : H @ 1.35 and D @ 3.70

Combos gives
1) H*H @ 1.89
2) H*D @ 5.18
3) D*H @ 4.72
4) D*D @ 12.95

Probability = 68% for one on this combo will be ok

it is a good idea to play like this ?

(Edited by: 05 December, 2006 - 11:47:29)

**Alex** · Alex

Stake Wizard can give an accurate answer. Just to clarify... What do 'N' and '1' mean?

**Bruno** · Newbie

Hi Alex,

I mean 1 = Home, N = Draw. (sorry, 1 and N = in french :eyes

I modified my first post.

Effectively, Stake wizard can be the best solution.

At Wich z.ave i can take combos please ? 4% or less ?

Thank you Alex

(Edited by: 05 December, 2006 - 11:54:13)

**Alex** · Alex

What does OW give for H and D separately in both matches?

**Bruno** · Newbie

example :

fair odds

Milton Keys-Stockport : 1.64 - D : 4.51
Barcelona-Chelsea : H : 1.45 - D : 5.15

combos value is possible ? whiches please ?

Thank you

(Edited by: 05 December, 2006 - 15:45:40)

**Kervon** · Newbie

Bruno.. What was the bookie's odds for the above matches you mentioned?

-----
"Winning can only come after you have instilled the disciplines"

**Bruno** · Newbie

Kervon, This is odds from OW.

But my main objective is not to find absolutely value bet ,but find a high probability of % given by OW.
Of course, if OW give 1.4 (71.4%) and Bookies give 1.30, i don't bet on them.
But if OW give 1.4 and bookies give 1.39 or more, i take.

And if i find 3-4 matchs like this, i can get an interesting combo with an interesting % to success. Stake wizard can help me also.

(Edited by: 06 December, 2006 - 12:09:58)

**Alex** · Alex

Well, that depends on the specific values of (fair odds) vs (line odds).
Let's take your example:

Fair odds (OW):

A. Milton Keys-Stockport : H : 1.64
B. Barcelona-Chelsea : H : 1.45

Suppose that line odds are as follows:

A. H : 2.00
B. H : 1.80

Initial fund = 100, Min stake = 5, Target = 1000, Conf.P = 95%.
The answer of SW is:

1. AB (double parlay) stake = 11.12, probablity of success (p) = 42.1%, number of rounds (R95) = 150.8, average factor of fund growth (Z ave) = 3.92%.
2. B (ordinary) stake = 17.84, p = 69%, R95 = 177.9, Z ave = 3.15%.
3. A (ordinary) stake = 12.73, p = 61%, R95 = 283.3, Z ave = 2.01%.

AB is preferable here, although its p is (always) less than that of ordinary bet.

Now suppose the following line odds for the same events:

A. H : 1.80
B. H : 1.70

The answer of SW is:

1. B (ordinary) stake = 14.45, p = 69%, R95 = 309.9, Z ave = 1.82%.
2. AB (double parlay) stake = 7.87, p = 42.1%, R95 = 369.9, Z ave = 1.58%.
3. A (ordinary) stake = 7.00, p = 61%, R95 = 1169, Z ave = 0.492%.

As one can see, ordinary bet B is the best variant for this particular case.

It is often not obvious which variant is better. So it's a good idea to delegate this task to Stake Wizard. In any case, you'll need to analyse specific pairs (fair odds vs line odds). As you know, SW can analyse up to 26 pairs simultaneously.