Newhavensoft forum

**huang** · Newbie

Hi everyone, I got my OW yesterday. And I don't know if I use it the right way. What I do is find all the games which bookie odds is greater than the fair odds and put all those games in the stake wizard. And bet on the top three selection which the letters are in red. Am I right doing that way? Thanks for help.

**Theuth** · Newbie

That is one way. But ask yourself why the bookie's odds are greater than the fair odds. Have they got some players out with injuries or suspensions? Has the other team got a new manager (players tend to up their game for a new manager, initially at least)?

Odds Wizard is not a magic formula, you still have to do your homework and check all possibilites.

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My betting blog: http://scoobysnacks.blogabet.com

**huang** · Newbie

Quote:

Thanks for your replay. What you said is exactly what I am wondering. If a bookie give a odd better than the fair odds, they probably want more money on that side. It can be a trap.

(Added)
I was thinking maybe we can go the opposite way. If we find a bookie odd way worse than the fair odd. That might be the side gonna win or at least bookie has some kind of info of the team.

**AmirD** · Junior Member

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I was thinking maybe we can go the opposite way

This goes against common sense, why bet on anything less than fair odds?
This is exactly what bookmakers want you to do, and I don't think they are bad guys setting traps either. The profit also comes from other players who are not using Odds Wizard, not just the bookmaker. Bookmakers only want to reduce and balance their risk buy paying out less money than justified, less than fair odds. This is what casinos do.
There is enough evidence here: http://www.newhavensoft.net/stats/Allstats.htm
that you can calculate fair odds with Odds Wizard.

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Amir

**joe** · Newbie

Actually, It is very diffcult to get line odds greaterthan fair odds. Even if line odds greaterthan fair odds , you arenot sure to win. Let say last night Chels Vs Arsenal ,line odds are higher than fair odds. Chelse win Carling cup.But that is a very rare case. http://www.interwetten.com/ is most relible site which Alex recommand that. I am sure do not depend on single point mean line odd > fair odds
Now you can see Italy serie A,

Reggina - Fiorentina 3.2 2.9 2.2 (Line odds)
Reggina - Fiorentina 4.25 3.77 , 2.0 (Fair odds)
And check Readng Vs Man U
Let we see how.
Btw, I didn't know how to use http://www.newhavensoft.net/stats/Allstats.htm
Thanks you guys.

(Added)
Hi Amird,
Do you know how can we get most correct fair odds. Now we can get general fair odd from odds wizard. Deprciation days is 900 which default. Do you recommond this period. Do you have any experience for that problem.
Thanks

**huang** · Newbie

I guess we don't us the OW in the cup match, just use it in the league.

**AmirD** · Junior Member

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Even if line odds greaterthan fair odds , you arenot sure to win

You can never be sure to win a single game, there will be losers and winners, but you should win in the long run. If you pick games where fair odds is under 2.00 there should be more winners than losers, but line odds must be greater.
This may also help keeping you from being dicouraged to use OW.

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Deprciation days is 900 which default. Do you recommond this period

I have no opinion here, I use default.

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Amir

**huang** · Newbie

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If you pick games where fair odds is under 2.00 there should be more winners than losers, but line odds must be greater.

This might be a good way to use OW. So Asian handicap might be the way to go.

**joe** · Newbie

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If you pick games where fair odds is under 2.00 there should be more winners than losers

Why should we pick fair odds is under 2.00. Can you share your experience?Can we use this rule in Asian handicap? I am very new to odds wizard experiece and soccer betting.
Thanks

**AmirD** · Junior Member

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Why should we pick fair odds is under 2.00

I think it might be easier to stick to betting if you have more winners than losers.
If you have fair odds 4.00 you probably win 1 in 4, but by all means do it if you feel comfortable with it. The positive feedbacks are further in between though.

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Amir