P-Diagram question

[knubbek]

Hey all!

First of all I wish you all good luck in this betting weekend.

Straight to the point:
¿How a good P-Diagram should look like?

I've the following picks and I've seen modifying the minimum stake, the P-Diagram changes a lot (what makes sense) but I don't know what should be the best for our purposes.

This one refers to minimum stake 0

This one refers to minimum stake 5

Could you explain to me what's the difference? Basically I think I'm not getting what P-Diagram really shows, could you explain it? What about the red and gray colours of the line?

Thanks in advance.

[Alex]

P-diagram shows optimal value of k0 - portion of a bankroll to be set aside (i.e. 1-k0 = portion used for betting). Maximum of the curve corresponds to the value of confidence probability (95% by default) and optimal k0 needed to achieve target fund (by default = 1000 * bankroll) using R95 identical betting rounds.

Another words, in your first example if you place R95 = 41 complex bets {ABCDEF} with k0=0.41 infinite number of times, in 95% you will achieve target fund after 41th complex bet.

In your second example you will achieve the same target fund after 29th complex bet {ACDEF} with k0=0.111.

It appears than second complex bet is better than first. But there is not 100% guarantee that you will win more in the 2nd bet actually. Look at Risk distribution diagram to check your chances to have negative or positive ROI% = (Z-1)*100, where Z - factor of fund growth on a diagram.

Note that always fund to be set aside (not for betting) x0 = k0 * bankroll.

Gray color on the curve shows the range of k0 that cannot be actually used due to minimum stake limitation. Even when you specify 0, this limitation is set to $0.01.

Detailed explanation of P-diagram can be found in Odds Wizard Guide > Stake Wizard Guide > Mathematical background.

[knubbek]

Thank you so much for clarifying, Alex.
But, I've another question, isn't a bit risky to use a total stake of 88,90 € for just one complex bet if my bankroll is 100 € ?

[Alex]

Look at Risk distribution diagram to evaluate your chances to have positive or negative ROI. Despite that chances to have positive ROI is greater than negative, there is always a little non-zero probability to lose all your stakes - it is visible on that diagram as well.