expected goals method...

[edo]

hello alex;

given the fact that you are into the business of software development and analytics; what is your position on deriving odds via expected goal based on quality of chances created vs quality of chances conceded ?

i have been researching deeply about the subject... and i have to say its how odds compiling should be done, in my opinion... it tells you who are actually the best teams/players, and who is over/under performing... evidence is pretty clear, the method measures performance rather than results (skill rather than chance)... instead of asking how many goals a team/player ACTUALLY scored, it’s more valuable to work out how many they SHOULD have scored based on how well they performed... don't get me wrong, i always liked OW... but ultimately it feeds from final results ONLY... i strongly suggest you move towards this concept, if you haven't already... thank in advance for any feedback.

[Alex]

Hi Edo,

the method measures performance rather than results

It is a kind of confusion because performance is based upon results. We compute performance (strength) variables: rating, intotal, attack, defence using array of all past results. Moreover, we determine trends in all those variables.

deriving odds via expected goal based on quality of chances created vs quality of chances conceded

Sense of the above is not clear. What does it mean

quality of chances

?

[edo]

the concept has been around for a few years now... you would have to research it; here is a blog post that explains the concept briefly:

https://www.infogol.net/blog/education/ ... s-11112016

cheers !

[Alex]

Thanks! I'll read it.