When is the right time to input games into the Stake Wizard?

[a3predict]

I picked a game recently that was green a few days before the game started. However, on the day of the game it went gray meaning the value is fluctuating and according to the policy of the stake wizard that is a game we should avoid.

In a scenario like this, what do you think we should do.

1. Pick games days before it is played to get good value when it is green but with later and new information changing the bookies odds then making it very much unfavorable odds or

2. We pick a game on the day of the events when it is very glaring that the odds are indeed valuable but at a reduced rate.

[Alex]

Cells become gray when the market odds go up. There are many reasons for the market odds to be increasing or decreasing: human factors including injuries, weather, motivation, betting volumes, and so on. All these factors cannot be accounted by OW algorithm, and therefore gray color warns users that there is last minute info about less chances for the given event to occur. From the other hand, the market odds may become less as compared to their initial value (opening odds), and green color may become light or even disappear. Thus potential winnings may become less as well.

Gray color can be ignored just in the case of betting volume reason. Each bookmaker has its own betting volume on the given event. To check whether reason is really in betting volume, look at all available bookmakers, and when you see gray color everywhere then the reason is something other than betting volume, and the bet should be avoided.

[a3predict]

So it is best that a bettor waits till few hours to the game before bets are placed? Considering that all factors must have been looked into before then.

I placed a few bets when they were green and before the game started it was gray and I lost the whole bets costing me a lot of money.

Then I played some and before it started it became less green and just like you said it disappeared. So, what do you think about waiting for few hours then staking the game. Will it be beneficial and more successful bet by then? And if so how many hours or minutes should one wait before the game starts.

[Alex]

You are right. It makes a sense to wait until few hours before the kickoff when hidden negative factors are converted to gray color. I mean negative with respect to the success of a given event.