Again :(

[Deyu]

Alex, it happens again to me:(. I Lost again even if OW said that this is a very good match. For example today :

Cercle Brugge - Lokeren line odds: 1.65 3.50 4.55
fair odds made by OW: 1.3 6.42 13.1
Aarau - St. Gallen line odds: 3.00 3.30 2.10
fair odds: 6.3 4.54 1.61

Fair odds were lower than line odds so this had to be a very good match to bet...why they don't win Alex??...please tell me

[Theuth]

Hi Deyu,

I'm not sure how you've got the fair odds for the Cercle Brugge vs Lokeren game. When I checked my OW, the fair odds for Brugge were almost exactly the same as the line odds. What depreciation period have you got set for this league. Mine is 900, when it's changed to 300 I get a fair odds figure of 1.3 which is more like yours. Looking at this game, it would have been a no bet for me anyway as Lokeren have more to play for and a bigger incentive to get a result than Brugge.

Interestingly, with the depreciation period set at 900, there are 3 games with deep green squares in this Belgium league. The first 2, KV Kortrijk (at 2.65) and SV Zulte Waregem ( 2.9), were both winners. The third plays tomorrow (25th). Anderlecht to beat Gent.

Regardless of the outcome of the game tomorrow, I think you're expecting to much from a computer program such as OW. Just because OW suggests that the line odds are too big, it doesn't mean that its a good bet. You will still have to do the research into the recent form, injuries, history between the clubs...etc. There's no magic formula but used with caution, OW can and does yield a profit.

Good luck, Theuth

[Deyu]

All these odds were with depreciation period 900 days.
To me Waregem had 4.99 odd and aplying trend hints it shows me that this is a risky bet:|. Please tell me what to mark on that boxes : Exclude draws, Allow quarter...., Manual input of ratings, Cup games do count , Overtime and penalties.... Please tell me how to make my OW as goos as it can be.

[Deyu]

Check for today:

Freiburg - Wolfsburg line odds: 2.80 3.20 2.27
fair odds: 5.74 4.65 1.64

Is a big difference between line and fair odds for 2....so, should i bet today on Wolfsburg...give me an advice

[jazzfish]

It is not as simple as that Deyu. If it was bookmakers would not be as rich as they are. You need to weigh up a range of factors and the OW ratings are just one of those factors. Also, you need to understand that just because OW odds are shorter than line odds (1) does not mean that is actually the case in reality (2) does not mean the selection will win. It's about probabilities. A team that is 1.01 can still lose and a team that is 15.00 can still win. Nothing is certain.

[Deyu]

ok..but tell me, for today...do you think that Wolfsburg will win?

[Theuth]

Wolfsburg are mid table with nothing to play for but pride and Freiburg are fighting against relegation. Wolfsburg's line odds are so big because maybe their motivation to win today is not so great as it should be. Yes they should win but it by no means certain. A small bet on the away win I think.

[Deyu]

Freiburg - Wolfsburg 1-0 nice program . ALex, if you don't take into calculation human factors OW will not make any profit. Please...please make some research and improve OW with these factors.