Line odds contradicting Score odds

[Reconnoiterer]

Hi,

I have noticed that in soccer games that there is a contradiction when you compare line odds to the odds for a particular score. I am not sure why this is but it is confusing. Let me explain. For example, take Italy Series A on 16/5/10. US Sampdoria v SSC Napoli. The line price for Sampdoria is 2.12 and for SSC Napoli the price is 4.09 with a draw being 3.51. So Sampdoria is favoured to win the event and does so. But when you look at the prices for correct score, the shortest price on this event is 6.42 for an outcome of 1:1, a draw. How could the most likely outcome be a 1:1 draw when the most likely outcome according to the line odds is for Sampdoria to win. This is similar to most events on most days. Surely the shorter priceswould be for a score of 1:0 or 2:0 or 2:1 or something like that, which would match the likelihood of Sampdoria winning according to line odds. The score odds of 1:0 is priced at 8.24. I don't quite understand.

Thanks

[AimHigher]

I don't know what all the odds were for this particular game but it seems possible to me that 1:1 was the most likely specific score, as long as the sum of all probabilities for a home winning score, a draw score and a away winning score would match the implied probabilities for home win, draw and away win. Since there are more possible score combinations for a home win or away win than there is for a draw, a specific draw score could be the most likely score while a home win or away win could still have a greater total probability i.e. lower odds.

Hope I made sense.

[Reconnoiterer]

Yeah but I still can't come to terms with the fact that the most likely outcome is for a win and the most likely score is a draw.....

[Alex]

Take any specific example from the correct scores view (F4), and convert odds to probabilities (Odds -> Notation -> Probability %). Then take a sum of all winning scores (1:0, 2:0, 2:1, etc.), losing scores (0:1, 0:2, 1:2, etc.), draws (0:0, 1:1, 2:2, etc.)
and you will see that sum of winning (losing) probabilities is higher than sum of draws in vast majority of cases. That means that winning (losing) odds in decimal notation are lower than those for draws. At the same time, the highest density of the probability distribution is located over the draw score (1:1) in your particular case. That's why 1:1 is often appears to be the most likely score while the winning (losing) odds are lower. Therefore there is no contradiction at all, just a paradox.