Odds Converter

[ahnamus]

Hello.i am new here and i want to ask a question about odds converter. (its path is Tools ---> Odd Converter)

Firstly i am betting generally under/over 2.5 . In odd converter, when you enter the 1-x-2 odds determined by the bookmaker, the odd converter gives you what should be the odds of U/O, right ? for example 1-x-2 odds are 2.20 2.90 2.50 then in odds converter it says for Under 1.59 and for Over 1.75 .. so these are i think what should be the odds for U/O .. but the bookmaker generally gives different odds from these . In this example it gives 1.55 for Under and 1.80 for Over .. so in odds converter it says under odd should be 1.59(nearly 1.60) > 1.55 (bookmaker s odd) and over odd should be 1.75 < 1.80 (bookmaker s odd). so from this point what decision should i make ? i think it is good to bet for "Under" according to these results ??

or sometimes in different odds triples(1-x-2) , odd converter gives U/O odds very different from the bookmaker. for example when odd converter gives Under odd favorite one and the Over odd is underdog , and the bookmaker gives Under odd underdog and Over odd favorite ,i understand that i should bet Under odd. because i understand the bookmaker try to cheat me by this way.but does this work always? any opinion or suggesstion about this ?

and a techinical question about Odd converter the left box is for Under with "<" and the right box is for Over with ">" right ?
thanks for your help !

[Phil Waters]

Hi

Yes < is for under and > is for over.

The odds that are generated for O/U from the 1X2 odds do not, as far I am aware, take into consideration the total goal expectancy for the forthcoming match. The bookmakers use total goals expectancy to determine odds for overs/unders.

You could have two matches with the exact same 1X2 odds but both pairs are from different scales of historical goals scored.

For example - Boulogne v Metz (French Div 2) and Heracles v Den Haag (Holland Eredivisie) could have the same match (1X2) odds but goals expected in the French match would be much lower than the Dutch match based on historical goals scored per game firgures.

This is something using the calculator alone does not take into consideration.

[Alex]

Phil Waters:

Let us exercise with the following imaginary examples which can be easily reproduced in OW manually by checking dropdown and neutral venue boxes at the left side of odds table:

1. US Boulogne vs US Boulogne on a neutral venue:

1-X-2 = 2.93 - 3.15 - 2.93
AHO = 0:0 - 2.0 - 2.0
U/O = Total 2 - 1.98 - 2.02

2. ADO Den Haag vs ADO Den Haag on a neutral venue:

1-X-2 = 2.75 - 3.67 - 2.75
AHO = 0:0 - 2.0 - 2.0
U/O = Total 2.75 - 1.97 - 2.04

Of course, ADO Den Haag is expected to score more goals, and thus probability of a draw in the match ADO Den Haag vs ADO Den Haag must be lower because the ratio

Sum of chances for X (0:0, 1:1, 2:2, 3:3, 4:4, etc.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sum of chances for 1 and 2 (1:0, 2:0, 3:0, 2:1, 3:1, 3:2, 4:2, etc., 0:1, 0:2, 0:3, 1:2, 1:3, 2:3, 2:4, etc.)

is always lower in the matches with more expected goals. Consequently, X in the triples 1X2 must be higher.

If almost no goals are expected to be scored at all, then the score 0:0 will prevail over all others. In such a case, X in a triple 1X2 will approach to 1 while (1) and (2) will tend to infinity. This is however the extreme condition.

Conclusions:

1. There are no two identical triples 1X2 with the different over/unders. If you encounter such, then the bookie does not understand the basics of probabilities.

2. Odds converter computes over/unders correctly. In particular, the above examples are reproduced exactly.

[Alex]

ahnamus:

The triple 2.20 2.90 2.50 contains profit margin 16.6% and thus calculated Total/U/O = 2.5 - 1.59 - 1.75 appears to be distorted. No comparison with the bookie's odds and no decision can be made with such odds. You must have fair odds (i.e. with a zero profit margin) to be able to make comparison.

To make the output values to be fair, click the button Set 0% in front of the field Profit margin. The result will be Total/U/O = 2.5 - 1.91 - 2.10.

What does the bookie offer?

In this example it gives 1.55 for Under and 1.80 for Over

So the right decision in your example: no bet at all because all pairs appear to be L < F: 1.55 < 1.91, and 1.80 < 2.10.

[Phil Waters]

Alex

I am not suggesting the odds converter calculates over/under prices incorrectly. I am suggesting that the bookmakers will include total goals expected as part of their make up of the over/under odds. This, quite often, will not correspond with the usual direct link there should exist from the match odds.

In such cases, I would imagine that the odds offered by bookmakers are there to be exploited.

In the Mainz v Schalke match about to kick off, Ladbrokes have the 1X2 prices as follows

Mainz 2.50, Draw 3.25, Schalke 2.75 (106%) - converted to 100% using the odds converter, the odds are Mainz 2.67, Draw 3.52, Schalke 2.93

They offer the goal line as 2.0/2.5 (or 2.25) and the odds are Over 2.25 - 1.94, Under 2.25 - 1.94

The odds converter shows the odds for over/under 2.25 (set to 0% margin) as over 2.25 - 1.75, under 2.25 - 2.34

In this instance, assuming the accuracy of the odds converter, would it appear they are out of line with themselves?

[ahnamus]

this means ,i should bet a game when Line odds > Fairs odds ? if then this would be so difficult to find games in a day between lots of games maybe hundreds ? any suggesstion ?

[Phil Waters]

There is a quick way of finding bets where L > F - just press F2 when looking at match odds and OW will fetch the latest BWIN odds. If the cells turn green it means you have a value bet facing you.

[Alex]

ahnamus:

this means ,i should bet a game when Line odds > Fairs odds ?

That's right, but bwin odds are presented only for triples 1-X-2, and double chance 1X, 2X. There are no Under/Over odds from Bwin in Odds Wizard yet. There is need to compare Odds Wizard's Under/Over fair odds with those of sportsbooks manually.

this would be so difficult to find games in a day between lots of games maybe hundreds ?

Sometimes it is indeed difficult to find appropriate pairs L > F, but otherwise betting makes no sense because you will lose your money in the long run.

Phil Waters:

Mainz vs Schalke line odds 2.50-3.25-2.75 yields in fair odds for Total/U/O = 2.5/1.92/2.09, or 2.25/2.25/1.80 which are somewhat different from your values.

In this instance, assuming the accuracy of the odds converter, would it appear they are out of line with themselves?

Referred Ladbrokes odds for 1-X-2 (2.50-3.25-2.75) are not consistent with their U/O values 2.25/1.94/1.94. I don't know how they calculated these specific values, but some sportsbooks use Odds Wizard to calculate the array of all odds on the basis of 1-X-2, and thus to avoid mistakes.

By the way, ice hockey 1-X-2 odds with high X values and relatively high totals can be considered as another extreme example to this subject.

[Phil Waters]

Phil Waters:

Mainz vs Schalke line odds 2.50-3.25-2.75 yields in fair odds for Total/U/O = 2.5/1.92/2.09, or 2.25/2.25/1.80 which are somewhat different from your values.

In this instance, assuming the accuracy of the odds converter, would it appear they are out of line with themselves?

Referred Ladbrokes odds for 1-X-2 (2.50-3.25-2.75) are not consistent with their U/O values 2.25/1.94/1.94. I don't know how they calculated these specific values, but some sportsbooks use Odds Wizard to calculate the array of all odds on the basis of 1-X-2, and thus to avoid mistakes.

By the way, ice hockey 1-X-2 odds with high X values and relatively high totals can be considered as another extreme example to this subject.

Sorry, I meant the draw was 3.3 which gave the U/O figures I quoted, not 3.25 draw.

Anyway, it would seem that Ladbrokes do not follow the probability rules would it not? Surely they can't have different odds for this?

[Alex]

I can't say definitely about Ladbrokes because I never analysed their odds systematically. But this could be just a single fault.

[ahnamus]

hello. i bet from a bookmaker called "iddaa" (in Turkish) and it sets profit margin generally about between 16-17% . and i also believe that this bookmaker also have or put some codes or passwords between the game's odds triples(1x2) and the other ones like U/O , total goal etc. i have experience about odd triples and other ones.. i am very familiar with them.. i think bookmaker doesnt take any risk.. with any result , it doesnt get in loss, it is always in profit i think.. i attached a pic about the codes between the odds..but i couldnt solve or cracked the codes properly.. does anyone have any opinion or suggessiton about this ? i think it would be so good by just looking and solving the code from the odds and bet without even nothing the teams' last performances , injured players , etc. etc. thanks for your help !