Using Stakes Wizard

[SilkBC]

When setting up bets usign Stakes Wizard, what is the proper use? For example, say I have a bankroll of $250 that I wish to grow to $1,000. Once I enter in the appropriate parameters (fund, minimum stake, target), then presumably I am ready to select some games to wager on, so let's say I go ahoead and do that and place the suggested wagers.

Once those initial wagers are place and the games over, then I would want to select another set of games to wager on. What do I do with the previous set of games that I wagered on and are now done? Do I delete them from Stakes Wizard, or do I leave them in and Takes Wizard would be smart enough to not include them in future "sets"?

Thanks!

-SilkBC

[Alex]

You may set parameters at any time before you start calculations. Afterwards, you may change parameters (if you wish to), and start calculations again, and so on.

Target fund and Conf P (confidence probability) do the matter only if the mode of calculations is Regular. Otherwise only Fund and Min stk affect the result.

With the Regular mode, less risk and less amount wagers are computed when Conf P and the ratio Taget/Fund are relatively high.

Both modes yield identical results when Target -> infinity.

You may also ask, what is the major difference between Regular and Kelly modes?

Regular mode optimizes staking plan and the winnings against the number of betting rounds required to achieve the Target fund, while the Kelly mode optimizes staking plan against the higher long-term winnings. Kelly mode wagers and risks are considerably higher. That is why apologists of Kelly method usually place only 25-50% of the calculated optimal stakes.

What do I do with the previous set of games that I wagered on and are now done?

I recommend to save the previous set in a stake file in order to clear space for the next bets.

The option Incl. closed allows either to include or exclude completed bets in/from calculations, but it is not recommended to include completed bets in a real staking plans except the cases when they may be a subject of retrospective analysis.

[SilkBC]

Hi Alex,

Thanks for the reply!

You may set parameters at any time before you start calculations. Afterwards, you may change parameters (if you wish to), and start calculations again, and so on.

So just by way of example: If I start my fund at, say $250 and set the target to $1,000, then it grows to $300 after all the bets I have placed have paid off, if I don't save the "stake" file, I would then just enter my "new" stake as $300 instead of $250? That actually makes sense

I recommend to save the previous set in a stake file in order to clear space for the next bets.

Other than for a historical record for my own purposes, is there any other reason to save the stake file containing the bets I placed? It doesn't affect anything within Stake Wizard/Odds Wizard itself, does it?

Thanks again for your reply! This is a great piece of software that I am learning more and more about each time I use it

-SilkBC

[Alex]

I am sorry for the late response due to the urgent attention to OW Data Miner v1.3 release issues (http://www.newhavensoft.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=45).

It doesn't affect anything within Stake Wizard/Odds Wizard itself, does it?

That's right. Saving to stake file doesn't affect anything within SW/OW.

Other than for a historical record for my own purposes, is there any other reason to save the stake file containing the bets I placed?

26 events limitation may force user to divide the whole pool of chosen bets either by leagues, or by countries, or even by sportsbooks (for professional bettors), and then optimize and save chunks in a separate stake files.