Newhavensoft forum

**Harley** · Newbie

Hi,
I purchased te program a view weeks ago, but it's not clear to me how to produce predictions.
I did read the manual several times.
Is it possible to give some examples.

Regards, Bert

**Alex** · Alex

Odds Wizard predicts future events in terms of probabilities of win, draw, loss, etc. It does not make senseless verdicts on who will actually win. Situation resembles quantum mechanics: you can't predict anything surely, but you can compute probability of whatever you want. Then, you compare fair odds F generated by Odds Wizard with the line odds L offered by a bookmaker, find pairs L > F (sometimes it's difficult), and finally determine optimal bankroll distribution using Stake Wizard 4 tool.

Suppose you have found events with the following fair and line odds:

A) F = 1.5 L = 1.7
B) F = 1.3 L = 1.5
C) F = 2.0 L = 2.3

Your bankroll is $100, target fund =$1000, minimum stake = $1, confidence probablity = 95%.

Instructions of Stake Wizard 4 in 'Regular mode' will be the following:

$67.30 - set aside
$14.48 - single bet on B
$7.67 - single bet on A
$4.25 - single bet on C
$3.41 - double parlay bet on AB
$1.89 - double parlay bet on BC
$1.00 - double parlay bet on AC

In the above example, average growth of your bankroll will be 3.99% in each betting round.

In general case, higher growth rates can be achieved by:

1. Getting more events into Stake Wizard 4 calculations.
2. Setting less minimum stake amount (Stake Wizard control panel).
3. Setting greater accumulators limit (Options).
4. Setting greater complex bet subcomponents limit (Options).

**Harley** · Newbie

Alex,
Thanks for your explaination.

**Harley** · Newbie

Alex,
I have still a question, how can i compute probabilities of win, loss, draw,etc.
Do i use the tournament analysis.
Would you be so kind to give an example
Bert

**Alex** · Alex

Probability is equal to the inverse value of fair odds, i.e. p = 1/F. You can display probabilities instead of fair odds by choosing menu Odds -> Notation -> Probability, %.

However Stake Wizard requires default decimal odds notation for the calculations.

**Harley** · Newbie

It's clear now.
Tanks
Bert