Newhavensoft forum

**Bruno** · Newbie

Hello,

First of all, excuse me for my english, i'm french.
I would like to speak about my "value betting experience" with odds wizards.

I bet since June 2005 with Odds Wizards and only in Asian Handicap and Over/Under.

I made around 700 bets. Actually my Yield is @ 5.65% for around 9 000 euros investment. I think it's a good percentage but.... since approximately 300 bets (wich is much), My graphic go slighlty but surely in down or stagnation.

1) I try to understand why my values bets (based on the same models since the start : z.ave = 1.040 or +) go down ??

Historic : My first 200 values bets (corresponding the first 2 month ot the soccer seasons - the start of the season), i was hot. I made 24% yields for around 2000 euros investment.
After these 200 bets, I stagnate for approximately 100 bets...ok, i thought it was a normal period because my yields was too high (24%). I thought that my yield must be 9-10%.
After these 100 bets, (bet 300 to bet 600), i begin to go down....i passed from 24% to 5.65%.....

2) Why value betting don't work so fine now ???
i have an answer, but i'm not sure if it's the right answer.
- My answer is here : bookies have no repair at the start of the seasons. It's more easy to find lot of value and nice values With OW and these values are generally correct.
So, it is more and more difficult to pass correct value bets when we are on the season advanced.
Because bookies have sharpened their stats and their odds. I found less value bets than the start of the season and my value bets are in the down than the start of the season... i think it's a sign that bookie became better in odds and stats when the season is advanced.

3) I would like to know if i'm in the right ?

4) I would like to know if Depreciation period (900 days) is correct ? Why not 700 days or 600 days ?

Perhaps i will have much value ! because at this period (and IMO until the end of the season) i will have no much value bet.

For example : The first 2 month (corresponding at the start of the season), i made 200 bets. The last 2 month (December-January) i made 20 bets....

I have also noticed that 80% of value bets are on the minor league like Roumania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgary, Scotland, Holland, Argentina, Qualifing world cup (really nice value) etc....

I rarely made a bet (value bet-hasian handicap) for England, Spain, France or Italy...

5) Why these differences between country ?

Lastly, NFL value bet was for me catastrophic (handicap and O/U). I don't understand.

I would like to say BIG THANK YOU to Alex.
Thank you very much for your help !!
All the best for 2006 !!
Bruno

(Edited by: 29 January, 2006 - 07:24:00)

**ColdFish** · Newbie

My own experience is that value bets become much harder to find as the season progresses, at least with the favourite home teams, in the major European leagues. Britain, France, Germany, and Spain. However, poor value for the person who bets, is good value for the bookie, so do what I do, and lay odds.

(Added)
I may add that I also have found the return on my investment to be around 6%, it would be interesting to know whether that is coincidence or not.

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ColdFish

**Bruno** · Newbie

Ok, Thx Coldfish for your answer

How i can ise stake Wizard 3 with laying odds please ?

**AmirD** · Junior Member

I use the formula: (average profit*percent winners)-average bet size, divide by average bet size to get profit margin.
Coldfish, I believe you have a very large sample size. I have only 70 bets so far and my profit margin is 51%, but my approach generates high short term volatility.
I don't bet without Stake Wizard and it's often a tough decision to bet a large part of one's equity on a single game. Profitable betting is not easy!

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Amir

**ColdFish** · Newbie

When laying I use a fixed sum currently 200€ and cover all three possible outcomes.

Stakes Wizard's main utility is deciding which outcome in any game to lay on. It allows you to smoothly select the games with the best margins from the bettors point of view.

I would like to emphasise that doubles, triples or whatever, are a mugs game. Bookmakers love them, because they stack the odds against the punter.

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ColdFish

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

I REALY BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD SHARE THE JOB.WE ARE SO MANY PEOPLE HERE THAT IF EVERY ONE TAKES 3 LEAGUES AND FINDS THE VALUE BETS IN THESE 3 OUR LIFE WILL BE MUCH EASIER.I M SURE THAT EVERY DAY I M MISSING A COUPLE OF VALUE BETS.I USED TO BE A CROUPIER THE LAST 5 YEARS IN A BIG CASINO IN GREECE.AND BY WATCHING AND TALKING TO PRO BLACK JACK PLAYERS I LEARNED THAT THE KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS IS TEAMWORK.JUST IMAGINE IF WE COULD HAVE 10 VALUE BETS EVERY DAY INSTEAD OF 4 OR 5

**ColdFish** · Newbie

Sharing knowledge is a way to learn, but remember we are in competion with each other, those value bets disappear as fast as they are taken.

AmirD
The hard part of gambling is not getting excited and risking too much of your capital. I took a bet on Chelsea last week for 2000€ at 2.02 and won, everything seemed favourable to make it worth the risk. What I must do now is NOT try to be clever and do it again. Now I will go back to my max 200€ a bet pattern of playing; usually by laying. The objective is a realistic percentage return over a period of time. Big wins tend to lead to bigger losses if you start chasing them.

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ColdFish

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Bet when there is value; buy line odds far above fair odds or sell odds below fair odds.
I regularly see incredible discrepancy, not many though but they come around.
If fair is 3.00 and line odds is 7.00 why should one not bet, or if you choose, to lay the other side?
I always use Stake Wizard to calculate stake, I'm not very clever on my own

(Edited by: 03 November, 2006 - 14:51:26)

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Amir

**ColdFish** · Newbie

You’re missing nothing. OddsWizard is unemotional, the market is not, provided OddsWizard produces reasonably accurate fair odds, and you deal with those, then in the long run you will win a margin profit.

Value lies in the discrepancy between fair odds and market odds, the wider the better. Such discrepancies tend to occur most commonly in the leagues with the least market, competition will tend to squeeze margins when many people are competing for price. My most difficult market for finding a good bet is in the UK leagues. Though these tend to have the most interesting in-play odds on Betfair, it is interesting to see wild swings in odds during the time no goal is scored, its all just emotion – take advantage of it if you can.

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ColdFish

**ColdFish** · Newbie

BETTING - SETTING A NEGATIVE ROUND

When I am looking for value bets, I have found the easiest way is to set the profit margin to a negative margin, say 20%, the odds you then see listed within OddsWizard will be 20% above fair, and you know you have got a good bet.

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ColdFish