Newhavensoft forum

**Peke** · Newbie

Your suggestion about depreciation period might be personal choice but I use 500-700 days mostly. I think teams base value do not change quickly.
Always remember to check those new teams in current league as their value could be really wrong in first season in the league before there is enough games. Then you could yourself make few procent adjustments either way depending injuries, latest games and so on.
Also remember that if you choose to play underdogs there few procent mistake in your estimation could mean wrong decision in making bet or not. As in 50+ % favourites little error in your prediction is not so significant.

**ColdFish** · Newbie

Laying odds on Betfair is as easy as placing a bet. The Betfair help page will supply all the information you need.

I usually set a margin of around 10% in OddsWizard, and then just enter the odds produced directly into the Betfair page. On average, I theoretically could expect a return of 10%, but not all the bets are taken up, and in my experience I get around 6%. Which on a week to week bases, is good. Remember though, that I normally lay around 100 games; so there is quite a lot of work, it can get a bit tedious, and you need to spread your money evenly between all of the games being layed.

I also make bets on a value for money basis. Set OddsWizards margin to 0% and back the bets with the best margin. Again, you need to put a small stake on a large number of bets. Remember its the average you are expecting to gain on. My returns are usually around 30%, but I have also had losses to the same percentage. On the whole, for me at least, laying is more consistent in offering returns; and when losses have occured it has only been about 2%. and those occasions have been rare since I have been using this program.

**AmirD** · Junior Member

ColdFish
My short term volatility is high, but with a positive expectancy, I could get serious drawdowns though; maybe I need the adrenaline

I have made 70 bets in 100 days, mainly with judgement as to who will win or draw, and only if it is a value bet; the assumption is that sample size will accumulate; risk is spread in time.
Laying has been added to my strategy.

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Amir

**Bruno** · Newbie

I want use OW in Lay.
i go on options-Profit margin : 10%-rounded : 0.05
i want use betfair for laying.
What i must doing after please ?
5% commission it is include or not ?

thanks for your help.

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

Quote:

CAN YOU PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW YOU RE CHOOSING THE 100 GAMES YOU RE LAYING?
WHEN YOU RE LAYING A GAME WHAT ARE YOU DOING IF NOT ALL THE BETS ARE TAKEN?
IF FOR EXAMPLE 1 AND X ARE MACHED BUT 2 IS NOT.

ANY HELP WOULD BE APPRECIATED

**ColdFish** · Newbie

LAYING ODDS ON THE EXCHANGES

Bruno - OddsWizard will calculate the odds with a profit margin of 10%, but does not take into account any calculation for the exhange commision. The exchanges charge you 5% of your winnings. On my turnover, Betfair charges me 3%. The way things currently workout I receive an average 6% return on my capital, its not very exciting, but it pays.

Billkor - I simply lay odds as early in the week as possible for all the European leagues, then the Australian, then the South American leagues. Normally I set the payout for 100€ for each game. Only about 20% of my games are completely covered, and therefore give a guaranteed immediate return. When the bet is completely covered Betfair release the stake, and it can be used for backing another game.

Generally of the remaining games about 40% have two outcomes covered, and the remainder have only one outcome layed. I might add that the UK league is very competetive, and the odds offered often move above the fair odds calculated by OddsWizard. If the market moves above the odds I am willing to offer using OddsWizard as a guide, I am inclined to make a bet. The method I use is to back the favourite as calculated by the program, using the following formulae to calculate my stake:

1/(OddsWizard odds -1)*100

For example OddsWizard estimates fair odds for the home team to be 1.62 with the market offering 1.95 a 20% premium.

1/(1.62 - 1) = 1/0.62*100 = 161.29€

I then take "insurance against a draw" Say the market is offering odds of 3.3 for a draw, though its often more.

161.29/(3.3-1) = 161.29/2.3 = 70.12€

I now have 161.29€ on the home win, and 70.12€ on the draw thus putting at risk 231.41€ if the favourite wins I get 161.29*1.95= 314.51€ and make a profit of 83.10€ on the game. If its a draw, I win 161.29€ which cancels out my loss on the home win and of course returns my stake on the draw, whilst if the away team wins I lose the stake, of 231.41€. However, if you look at the statistics of past results on the OddsWizard site, you will see that fair odds of 1.62 (62% probability of winning) wins on average 70% of the time, and is either a home win or draw 88% of the time. Hence on average I can expect to lose only 12% of the time or aproximately one game in eight. Hence, in the long run I can expect to win 83.10*7 = 581.70€ for each 231.41€ loss. Or looking at it another way, if on the same weekend I back eight games in this way, I will probably win on draw seven and lose on one. Quite often I win or lose nothing on the lot, though drawdowns do occur; but in the long run I can expect to stay ahead.

As a personal aside, I trade for a living, and my employment contract prohibits me from trading in any of the financial markets on my own account - thus avoiding conflicts of interest. For me at least the exchanges are a way of trading with my own capital, and like the financial markets are to be approached with the idea of making a return on investment; rather than a fortune on a big win. At the moment the liquidity of Betfair is still limited, but what is remarkable is that the vast majority of games are operating on a margin of 0.7%. More than once I have seen negative margins of 2%. In fact you can buy programs that do nothing but scan through Betfair placing bets when margins go negative, thus ensuring a return. My example of odds of 1.95 with fair odds of 1.62 is far from rare. One of the things that attracts me to OddsWizard is its wealth of information, and of course its accuracy.

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

Quote:

THANKS COLDFISH.YOU RE VERY HELPFULL.
SO WHEN YOU RE BETTING ON A TEAM DO YOU ONLY CHECK IF THE TEAMS ODDS IS A VALUE BET OR YOU RE USING THE CHARTS AS WELL.DO THE CHARTS HELP OR WE SHOULD JUST BE FOCUSED ON THE ODDS MATTER.I MEAN IS TEAMS PERFOMANCE SOMETHING THAT WE SHOULD TAKE UNDER CONSIDERATION?OR INJURIES?
AND FINALLY HOW YOU RE FINDING IN A QUICK WAY THE EXACT AMOUNTS YOU WANT TO LAY IN EVERY MATCH.MY WAY IS TO DIVIDE 100 WITH EVERY ODD THAT I WANT TO LAY.FOR EXAMPLE IF I WANT TO LAY ODDS OF 3 I WILL DIVIDE 100/3=33.33 .SO I WILL LET THE BACKER LAY UP TO 33.33 EURO.IS THIS A CORECT WAY?IS THE ANY WAY THAT I CAN USE STAKE WIZARD IN LAYING

THANKS MATE

**ColdFish** · Newbie

When betting I focus on the odds in order to shortlist the games I may bet on.

Then I take into account aspects such as strategy. For example if you have a powerful team like Chelsea playing against Sunderland at home, its often considered a foregone conclusion: and your going to get odds like 1.11. However, have a look to see who they are playing the following week, Arsenal for example (just an example, jot a current situation). Under this kind of situation the tendency for Chelsea management will be pull the best players to guard against injury, or even give them a break with their family). Even if they loose they know that its just going to be seen as a luck day for Sunderland. In such a situation, I would heavily lay Chelsea. Covering myself on a draw or an away. This kind of thinking as served me well in the last two weeks with Chelsea. Today, however, I am backing Chelsea with a 2000€ at 2.02, as I feel they will bring out their heavy guns to demonstrate that after two draws they know how to bring home the winnings against the like of Liverpool.

(Added)
BILLKOR

Choose to Lay ALL

Three option appear, into which you should enter you odds, do not accept the ones being offered as that is guaranteed to lose you money. Use your Betfair number or less.

When you lay odds on Betfair either on one outcome or all three, you will see a small menu to the top right that says:

0 Payout
0 Liabity

Chose the Payout option and enter 100 or the amount you are willing to put at risk. The program will then automatically fill in you stakes in such a way that any one winning outcome will be paid for by the other two, and leave you with a profit. That is if you are luck and get all three covered. Otherwise the situation is that if the uncovered option wins you get to keep all the money, but if you lose, then the money from the non-winning bets helps reduce your losses.

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ColdFish

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

IS THERE ANY WAY THAT THE ODDS COMPARISON CAN BE DONE AUTOMATICALLY.CAN YOU FOR EXAMPLE CREATE SOMETHING IN EXCELL THAT WILL COMPARE THE ODDS FROM THE ODDS WIZARD AND BETFAIR ON ITS OWN?

**DocSander** · Newbie

Quote:

Chose the Payout option and enter 100 or the amount you are willing to put at risk. The program will then automatically fill in you stakes in such a way that any one winning outcome will be paid for by the other two, and leave you with a profit.

First of all, thanx to Coldfish for sharing your tactics with the rest of us.
For me, i'm still building up my experience using OW/Betfair, though i think making 70% in 6 weeks time's not too bad a start.

Regarding the above, where exactly do you fill in the 100 number, am i missing a way of having betfair calculating your way of spreading the 100 among the three stakes in an equal fashion?

Thanx in advance