Newhavensoft forum

**admin** · Administrator

Please feel free to express your thoughts

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Hi,

you did a good job with Stake Wizard 3, which I believe is still state of the art for calculating bet size.

To use Odds Wizard one has to trust it and not give up when one is losing.
Sometimes when I see a good valuebet I hesitate to bet.
Today I decided not to bet; and it turned out the bet would have been a big winner.
I didn't pull the trigger; perhaps this is a good lesson.
The manual updating of leagues at Soccerway works great. I can choose any league and it imports everything necessary. Good job.

(Edited by: 19 January, 2006 - 13:16:01)

-----
Amir

**Peke** · Newbie

Well, for me mouse movement is now much slower than in older versions, is it bug or feature

I also want to see feature that you could print or export all predictions for next fixtures. Now only first 12 matches possible. Maybe that odds table could be scrollable or a bit bigger.
As program seems to predict pretty nicely soccer games I would like to see same level in icehockey also. Always getting very low predictions for draw option, with or without overtime counts option in settings. Something like 3-5 % too low for draw. In soccer games it is much closer but maybe also there could be 1-2 % more for draw in even games.

(Edited by: 10 December, 2005 - 13:31:22)

**ColdFish** · Newbie

I have been using OddsWizard for about three years now, and have been consistently making money. Mainly through laying bets rather than making them.

With regard to possible improvements, I would suggest the following:

1) A page allowing the user to choose which leagues to download and show from all those available. At the moment it is necessary to open each league to cancel future downloads, being able to chose leagues for updating in one place would be more convenient.

2) The ability to output to Excel more than one weeks games. It is often advantageous when laying bets on the exchanges to be early with an offer.

3) It would be nice to see at bottom of the screen, where you see profit margin, a number giving a performance analysis for the last three or four weeks of play for a league.

4) With regard to performance analysis, a way of examining forecast accuracy as an average graph for weeks of play withing a season would be nice. It may be my imagination, but forecast accuracy seems to fall during the Christmas weeks, I compensate by increasing my rounding; but it would be useful to be able to check such league behaviour.

My thanks to Alex, for his excelent program, and always prompt replies to my requests for new registation keys with my frequent computer upgrades.

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

WELL.APART FROM THE MAIN IDEA ,COMPARING ODDS,WHAT ARE THE OTHER THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF TO IMPROVE OW PERFOMANCE?

(Added)
I'M USING ODDS WIZARD THEL LAST 2 YEARS.
THE FIRST YEAR I WAS USING ODDS WIZARD WITH EXTREMELY GOOD RESULTS.I STARTED WITH 250 EURO AND I MANAGED TO TURN THEM TO 1600 EURO
AFTER ABOUT 6 MONTHS OF PLAY.I THEN STOPED PLAYING BECAUSE OF THE SUMMER.MY STRATEGY THEN WAS TO LOOK OUT FOR VALUE ODDS,DO A LITTLE
CHECK AT ODDS WIZARD CHARTS AND CHOOSE THE BEST TEAMS.THEN I WAS PLACING THE BET WITH THE BEST R95 VALUE.I WAS DOING PRETTY
WELL.THIS SEASON I STARTED TO DO THE SAME THINGS BUT THIS TIME I WAS PLAYING AT BETFAIR(MUCH MORE BETTER ODDS) AND I WAS ANALYZING
THE GAMES MUCH MORE BETTER WITH A STATISTICAL PROGRAMME (SSTRACKER).THE RESULTS?TERRIBLE.ALL MY MONEY GONE.WIPPED OUT.I M LOOSING
CONTINIOUSLY THE LAST 6 MONTHS.WHAT I MIGHT DOING WRONG?I M START TO THINKING THAT MAYBE I MUST CHANGE THE ODDS WIZARD DEPRECIATION
PERIOD FROM 900 DAYS TO SOMETHING LIKE 180 DAYS TO REFLECT TEAMS RECENT PERFOMANCE.WHAT DO YOU SAY ABOUT THAT?AND FINALLY IS IT A
GOOD IDEA TO TRY TO FIND VALUE ODDS TO LIVE GAMES.FOR EXAMPLE ODDS WIZARD SAYS
THAT FOR THE GAME LIVERPOOL-JUVENTUS THE FAIR ODDS ARE 2.22-3.68-3.6 .IF I M WATCHING THE GAME AT BETFAIR AND IF THE SCORE AFTER 30
MIN OF PLAY REMAINS 0-0 THE ODDS FOR LIVERPOOL OR JUVE WILL SURELY GO UP.FOR THE SAKE OF EXAMPLE LETS SAY LIVERPOOL WILL GO TO 3.IS
NOW LIVERPOOL A VALUE BET SINCE AT THE BEGGINING WAS 2.22?

(Added)
Quote:

SO HOW EXACTLY YOU RE LAYING BETS?HOW DO YOU USE OW TO DO THAT?WHAT ODDS ARE YOU FEEDING IN STAKE WIZARD?

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Hi Billkor, I'm using Stake Wizard 3 which maximizes profits and minimizes losses.
Winners are not obvious. My strategy has been to just use Odds Wizard mechanically, after a period of 30 bets I reckoned intuition would develop gradually.
I recommend "Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas, substitute "trading" with "betting."

(Edited by: 23 January, 2006 - 11:23:00)

-----
Amir

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

SO WHAT YOU ACTUALLY DO IS SETTING PROFIT MARGIN MORE THAN 0
% AND THEN YOU RE TRYING TO LAY BETS AT THE ODDS THAT OW SAYS?CAN YOU PLEASE GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE?I JUST DONT UNDERSTAND HOW YOU CAN TURN ALL THE ODDS TO SEE WICH ONES YOU CAN LAY.

**AmirD** · Junior Member

BILLKOR
I suppose you can lay any bet if you have a market for it. How can you get wiped out? Have you heard of bet size or lay size, only bet or lay a percentage of your fund.

(Edited by: 07 February, 2006 - 01:29:03)

-----
Amir

**Peke** · Newbie

You should set profit margin for example 5-10 % , then OW gives you odds to lay. Those are lower than normal OW odds. Then if you make profit with those you can lower your profit margin and that way lay bigger odds, maybe getting more accepted bets but not necessarily profitable for you depending your estimations.
Concerning about live bets it is obvious that in live game current situation odd goes down all the time and others go up. You can not use pregame estimation all the game, that must be updated based on gametime.

(Edited by: 25 January, 2006 - 10:58:34)

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

WELL.APART FROM THE MAIN IDEA ,COMPARING ODDS,WHAT ARE THE OTHER THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF TO IMPROVE OW PERFOMANCE?
WHAT ELSE IS VERY IMPORTANT WHEN YOU RE CHOOSING GAMES THAT THEIR ODDS ARE BETTER THAN THE FAIR?CHARTS?RECENT FORM?INJURIES?OR NOTHING AND WE SHOULD ONLY BE CONCETRATE IN THE ODDS?