Newhavensoft forum

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

What do you think about the idea of comparing odds from one bookmaker to another since their taking under consideration all the possible things that might affect the result of a game and not just the historical data.For example use a big bookmaker as standart and try to find odds better than him in other bookmakers to play.Or use betbrain that can tell us the actual percentage for each possible result by producing it from lots of bookmaker odds.For example betbrain can find the average odds for a game by calculating the odds from bookmakers.Is nt that closer to truth than oddswizard since the book makers know more things than us and they re including all the latest important news ikn their odds?

And finall can someone explain me how the programme counts its own success in perfomance analysis?what thinks of a win and what as a loss?

**AmirD** · Junior Member

I don't think there is any real value in their odds. You might copy their odds and lay at betfair, but which one are you going to copy; lay where their is greatest profit. You'll get more bets if your odds are better than the bookmakers, use Odds Wizard for this if possible.
Back<>Lay (not equal to...)

(Edited by: 12 February, 2006 - 11:19:23)

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Amir

**Peke** · Newbie

You can not just use oddscomparison for choosing bets as bookmakers lays odds according to their customers backing habits. For example if they always get much money for some favourite win they might lay that odd lower than real probability says. But oddscomparison is best used if you choose where to make your bet, that way you always find best odds from your own bookmaker selection.

**ColdFish** · Newbie

The bookmaker adjust their odds in order to ensure that they obtain a round on all outcomes, essentially the bets put on draws and aways pays the home wins, with a percentage left over for profit, hence bookmakers odds adapt to the market, although Betfair odds does it more rapidly.

The purpose off OddsWizard is to estimate statistically the true probibility, irrelevent of public feeling. At a guess I think it uses a modified form of the Elo system of rating. The Performance Comparison of the forecast is based on comparing probabilities estimated, against true outcomes. You will see an explanation of the formulae used in the help file.

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ColdFish

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

Can someone please explain me why the Zave has to be over 1.040 .If i have a bet with Zave at 1.030 is nt still a value bet?And is it best to bet singles doubles or it doesnt matter as long as they re value?

**ColdFish** · Newbie

I am not familiar with the term Zave, can you expand on what you mean.

Mathematically single bets are the best because they offer less risk. Once you start doing multiples you begin stacking the odds against youself.

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ColdFish

**BILLKOR** · Newbie

When the stake wizard gives the bet combinations there is a Z ave% parameter.Alex once told me trough an email that this value has to be more than 1.040.

**Kervon** · Newbie

Hmm... Interesting conversation.

But now one thing, ColdFish, I'm not sure if you're a user of Stake Wizard. But if you do, how do you go about knowing that you 200€ IS the correct amount to wager?

The edge we get from the value determines the amount we should wager from our bankroll. I guess this statement is definitely valid and true. So isn't a bet of 200€ on say a 5% value more dangerous and less worthy than a same 30% value bet, which you only back 200€...? Get what I mean.

I've been using OW for a pretty long time.. But there's still a question I haven't got answered. Does anyone know say the situation is that we've got 3 value bets all kicking off at the same time.. amounts to wager are A=1€,B=2€,C=3€ respectively... from a bankroll of 10€...
So..Do we bet 1€ and recalculate the B C with 9€ bankroll.... or do we just place 1,2,3€ which leaves our bank with 4€...? Hmm... A penny for your thought?

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"Winning can only come after you have instilled the disciplines"

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Kervon
I don't think a worst case scenario is effective, although I can't argue against it.
I had about 10 value bets this weekend, what I did was divide the bet fund by 10 and kept it constant, this is probably not the best method either and is just gut feeling.
I would divide by 10 even if I had 30 value bets.
Increased bet frequency should help to reach the target faster, but how to do it effectively I don't know.
Wonder if Alex could help?

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Amir

**Kervon** · Newbie

Amird,

Thanks for your reply on this matter. I won't judge what I mentioned as worst-case scenario..although it does look like one.

I was actually referring to the ACTUAL way Stake Wizard has intended for it's users to wager on.

Stake Wizard was made with the brilliant capabilities to propse how much you should wager on a match. BUT... If you had 10 REALLY GOOD value bets as you mentioned... and say you have 100 as base fund. Stakw Wizard suggests that each value bet requires an amount of like 30...

How do you go about wagering these 10 value bets?...

Which is why I was asking... Do we take one best %Z Ave value bet and wager 30 on it...and after which take 70 as base fund for the rest of the 9 value bets?... Is that how we are supposed to use Stake Wizard?

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"Winning can only come after you have instilled the disciplines"