Newhavensoft forum

**AmirD** · Junior Member

The statistics at http://www.newhavensoft.net/stats/Allstats.htm,
is it also applicable to AHO?

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Amir

**Kervon** · Newbie

Sad to say. No.

The success rates are based on fixed odds. Which meant a 'three-horse' race. Win, Draw, Lose.

That does not apply to AH odds.

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"Winning can only come after you have instilled the disciplines"

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Too bad!
I'll trust fair AHO odds anyway.

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Amir

**Kervon** · Newbie

Say, AmirD.. I believe you're an avid AH player, just like I am.

But honestly, how much has OW helped you in your AH wagering?. From what we know, OW does give us fair AHO odds. And by now I'm sure you're aware that, given OW's fair AHO odds. Almost more than 60% of the matches we find in the market can be value bets if we went according to OW's recommendation of AHO fair odds.

How did you deal with that? How did you find MORE value than just fair/line odds value to wager on for your AHO?

I used to have a whole load of systems. Most started working well... but end up screwing up. We already know that value betting isn't for the faint hearted. SO how did you deal with AH VALUE bets?... It' really quite impossible.

Oh just one more incident, there were couple of times, I note the discrepency in a fair AH odds / Line odds. Line was A 0:0.5 B, but according to OW, it was supposed to be A 0.5:0 B ...... I checked the charts, alittle of the teams' news... And went on BIG with B...(Which I thought was extreme value)

Guess what.... Final score 3-0 .... These happened not once but quite a number of times, including similiar occurence but with smaller diff in fair/line odds.

All I can say is that, the bookie knows better than us....

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"Winning can only come after you have instilled the disciplines"

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Quote:

Almost more than 60% of the matches we find in the market can be value bets if we went according to OW's recommendation of AHO fair odds.

It would not be practical to take every value bet and probably not profitable; I export all odds to Excel, import odds from Betbase to Excel then filter the best value bets, usually 3-4% of all odds.
If the bookmaker offers AHO, I'll check if there is sufficient value to bet on it, otherwise it will be Home, Away or Double chance.

Quote:

How did you deal with that? How did you find MORE value than just fair/line odds value to wager on for your AHO?

AHO more winners

, smaller payouts, fair/line less winners

, higher payouts. The value is psychological.

Quote:

I used to have a whole load of systems. Most started working well... but end up screwing up. We already know that value betting isn't for the faint hearted. SO how did you deal with AH VALUE bets?... It' really quite impossible.

AH spreads are editable in OW, enter for instance 0.5:0 and you'll see the calculated odds.

Quote:

Oh just one more incident, there were couple of times, I note the discrepency in a fair AH odds / Line odds. Line was A 0:0.5 B, but according to OW, it was supposed to be A 0.5:0 B ...... I checked the charts, alittle of the teams' news... And went on BIG with B...(Which I thought was extreme value)

I don't believe there is anything illogical. I would like to know when you come across this kind of discrepency because I don't see your point.

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Amir

**Alex** · Alex

Quote:

The statistics at http://www.newhavensoft.net/stats/Allstats.htm,
is it also applicable to AHO?

Sure, it is applicable to AHO as well, because 1X2 values can be converted to AHO, Total goals, and Correct scores (e.g. using Tools -> Odds converter).

The above resource and the tool 'Performance analysis' contain just 1X2 due the relative simplicity of 1X2 measurements. The rest of odds are bound to 1X2 values.

**Kervon** · Newbie

AmirD,

Pardon me for my English IF there's anything wrong with it. But I guess you haven't got what I meant.

Anyway, I've long understood what you've mentioned in your reply, for I've been using OW for a pretty long period of time.

I'm just pretty new to AH Value Betting. Which I often see huge discrepancies and contrasting results. Anyway, since your willingness to guide/comment is so limited. I guess I shan't continue with this discussion.

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"Winning can only come after you have instilled the disciplines"

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Kervon
sorry if I have made a negative impression, and I didn't even notice if there is anything wrong with your english, your english is very good.

An example of AHO:
Sunday_Czech republic - 1st division_Blsany:Sparta Prague: double chance (1X) fair odds is 1.68 and line odds 2.39, where R95 is 107.
AHO at Pinnacle 1:0 odds 1.806 and fair odds is 1.29 where R95 is 58.
Maybe the discrepancy is that the bookmaker is luring the punter with an advantage or maybe it is a mistake from their side, I really don't know.

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Amir

**Kervon** · Newbie

AmirD,
Thanks for your reply.

YES. That's exactly what I mean. The huge discrepancies which you also took notice. And that's exactly what I mean... How can we know if it's a mistake or a lure?...

I've been 'lured' a couple of times, and of course I have a tiny share of mistakes too. But don't the bookies know better than us?

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"Winning can only come after you have instilled the disciplines"

**AmirD** · Junior Member

I'm wary when the odds are "too good" but I have faith in OW, I study the charts to improve my skills, the charts also seem to reflect public sentiment; I believe the charts can tip you off that a game is a value bet or which team is stronger, gaining strenght or is a turn around candidate.
The bookmakers odds almost always reflect the public notion of which team is going to win. I don't think there are any secrets.

(Edited by: 05 April, 2006 - 14:44:04)

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Amir