Newhavensoft forum

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Austria - 1st division Kapfenberg SV - Schwanenstadt SC Fri 25-08-2006 - 19:00
Here Fair odds are 1.6 and Line odds are 3.35 with Bwin.
Kapfenberg SV has a falling trend and Schwanenstadt SC is rising.
Bet against the trend? Tough decision.
Result: 0-2

(Edited by: 25 August, 2006 - 16:25:11)

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Amir

**audio2** · Newbie

Recent form suggests Schwanenstadt SC will win and there will be lots of goals.
But how often does that go wrong!

When I see games like this I set the depreciation period to 125 days and it captures the recent form

note the odds are now

Kapfenberg 12.9 Draw 7.1 Schwanenstadt 1.28

Set it to 100 Days and

Kapfenberg 81.8 Draw 21.6 Schwanenstadt 1.06

This has probably not provided an accurate model of the odds just a snapshot of recent form and as I don't bet on away wins it would be No bet

If I HAD to choose it would be 2X

I would find it difficult to bet against the away team
But I wouldn't feel confident that the home team is capable of winning.

Just my opinion I could well be wrong

GOOD LUCK

**AmirD** · Junior Member

Interesting idea to check long and short depreciation periods, I check the short term by looking at the long term chart.
Short periods seem erratic but if they confirm longer ones, why not.
Maybe a composite odds of the two, or more periods could improve performance?

(Edited by: 24 August, 2006 - 06:12:23)

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Amir

**good2cu** · Newbie

Just wondering whether it is the case that betting on an away team with line odds much higher than fair odds would be far better than betting on a home team with the same situation? especially for asian handicap betting.

(Edited by: 01 September, 2006 - 02:26:57)

**AmirD** · Junior Member

It doesn't matter if you are betting on the home or away team. The probability is already calculated by Odds Wizard.

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Amir